Estimation of life expectancy of wood poles in electrical distribution networks

Abstract Wood poles have been commonly used to support electrical lines throughout Canada. The electrical networks in Ontario alone use over 2 million wood poles to support distribution lines. The aging and degradation of wood pole infrastructure built in 1950s and 1960s have potential to increase the risk of pole failure resulting in power outage and costly unplanned maintenance work. Therefore, the development of a scientific and cost-effective asset management philosophy has become increasingly important to power utilities. The paper presents a probabilistic approach to minimize the life-cycle cost of inspection and refurbishment of wood poles in a large distribution network. A key input of probabilistic methodology is the life-time distribution function of wood pole, though its estimation is often hampered by the lack of data. The paper presents a comprehensive statistical analysis and interpretation of actual wood pole inspection and surveillance data collected by power utilities. The statistical analysis provides estimates of life expectancy and the survival curve of a typical distribution wood pole in-service in the Canadian climate. The optimization of refurbishment policy presented in the paper is generic and equally applicable to the asset management of other civil infrastructure systems.

[1]  M. Newbill Bonneville Power Administration's wood pole management program , 1993, Proceedings of ESMO '93. IEEE 6th International Conference on Transmission and Distribution Construction and Live-Line Maintenance.

[2]  Marvin Zelen,et al.  Mathematical Theory of Reliability , 1965 .

[3]  N. L. Johnson,et al.  Survival Models and Data Analysis , 1982 .

[4]  H. Akaike Prediction and Entropy , 1985 .

[5]  Jeffrey J. Morrell,et al.  Wood pole maintenance manual , 1996 .

[6]  R. Baker,et al.  Probability estimation and information principles , 1990 .

[7]  J. R. Goodman,et al.  Wood pole management-utility case studies , 1990 .

[8]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Life-cycle cost design of deteriorating structures , 1997 .

[9]  E. Kaplan,et al.  Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations , 1958 .

[10]  Nathan Keyfitz,et al.  Applied Mathematical Demography , 1978 .

[11]  Stephen E. Fienberg,et al.  A Celebration of Statistics , 1985 .

[12]  G.S. Bhuyan Condition based serviceability and reliability assessment of wood pole structures , 1998, ESMO '98 - 1998 IEEE 8th International Conference on Transmission and Distribution Construction, Operation and Live-Line Maintenance Proceedings ESMO '98 Proceedings. ESMO 98 The Power is in Your Hand.

[13]  J. Lawless Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data , 2002 .

[14]  J. Kalbfleisch,et al.  The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data , 1980 .

[15]  Adnan M. Awad,et al.  Properties of the Akaike information criterion , 1996 .

[16]  J. Cavanaugh Unifying the derivations for the Akaike and corrected Akaike information criteria , 1997 .

[17]  J. M. van Noortwijk,et al.  The use of lifetime distributions in bridge maintenance and replacement modelling , 2004 .