Mapping a Low-Carbon Future for the Philippines: Scenario Results from a Fractional Programming Input-Output Model

The Philippines submitted an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) which outlined a provisional commitment of 70% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) levels. However, the basis of the proposed reductions is unclear, and the INDC has been criticized for possible adverse effects on the economic growth of the country. In this study, we make a rigorous high-level assessment of potential for reduction in GHG emissions using a low-resolution fractional programming input-output model. Five scenarios are considered to gauge the lowest possible GHG emissions intensity per unit gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 considering differentiated sector growth, changes in grid power mix, and broad deployment of end-use energy conservation measures. Our calculations show that the best projection from the combination of these low-carbon measures yields only a 30.6% reduction in emissions intensity relative to 2006 levels.

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