THE AIDS PANDEMIC IS NEW, BUT IS HIV NEW ?

disease. There are precedents for each sce? nario among known viruses causing dis? eases (see Shope and Evans, 1993). The new virus and old virus scenarios have pro? foundly different implications for under? standing the mechanisms of HIV propaga? tion and the etiology of AIDS, for combating AIDS, and potentially for efforts to prevent future epidemics. The terms "new" and "old" are ambiguous beyond denoting rela? tive age; for purposes of this article we con? sider a new virus one that has infected its

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