Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios

Significance Assessments of alternative mitigation strategies to limit the impact of global change increasingly rely on simulations of Earth System Models (ESMs). In the tropics, a major biodiversity refuge and a net sink for anthropogenic carbondioxide emissions, ESMs consistently project that forests will thrive through the century due to enhanced plant photosynthesis. Using an ESM that accounts for the simultaneous effect of fires, water stress, and plant competition, we found that up to 40% of Amazon forests may begin to convert to savanna before mid-century under high emission scenarios. These results point to reassessing the resilience of tropical forests to climate-induced disturbances and urge action to reduce carbon emissions to prevent tropical forest degradation.