Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) currently have the challenge of high CAPEX mainly associated to the fuel cell. This study investigates strategies to promote FCEV deployment and overcome this initial high cost by combining a detailed simulation model of the passenger transport sector with an energy system model. The focus is on an energy system with 95% CO2 reduction by 2050. Soft-linking by taking the powertrain shares by country from the simulation model is preferred because it considers aspects such as car performance, reliability and safety while keeping the cost optimization to evaluate the impact on the rest of the system. This caused a 14% increase in total cost of car ownership compared to the cost before soft-linking. Gas reforming combined with CO2 storage can provide a low-cost hydrogen source for FCEV in the first years of deployment. Once a lower CAPEX for FCEV is achieved, a higher hydrogen cost from electrolysis can be afforded. The policy with the largest impact on FCEV was a purchase subsidy of 5 k€ per vehicle in the 2030–2034 period resulting in 24.3 million FCEV (on top of 67 million without policy) sold up to 2050 with total subsidies of 84 bln€. 5 bln€ of R&D incentives in the 2020–2024 period increased the cumulative sales up to 2050 by 10.5 million FCEV. Combining these two policies with infrastructure and fuel subsidies for 2030–2034 can result in 76 million FCEV on the road by 2050 representing more than 25% of the total car stock. Country specific incentives, split of demand by distance or shift across modes of transport were not included in this study.

[1]  Vincent Rits,et al.  EVALUATING THE DIFFUSION OF FUEL-CELL CARS IN THE CHINA MARKETS , 2004 .

[2]  L. Schipper,et al.  Transportation and CO2 emissions : flexing the link - a path for the World Banlk , 1999 .

[3]  Patrícia Fortes,et al.  Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling , 2015 .

[4]  Ulrich Fahl,et al.  Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES , 2007 .

[5]  Susan Weiss,et al.  Documentation in the , 1994 .

[6]  A. Voss,et al.  Analysing the interaction between emission trading and renewable electricity support in TIMES , 2015 .

[7]  Thiel Christian,et al.  The JRC-EU-TIMES model - Assessing the long-term role of the SET Plan Energy technologies , 2013 .

[8]  Will McDowall,et al.  Designing future hydrogen infrastructure: Insights from analysis at different spatial scales , 2013 .

[9]  Detlef Stolten,et al.  Spatio-temporal optimization of a future energy system for power-to-hydrogen applications in Germany , 2018, Energy.

[10]  Otto Rentz,et al.  Market penetration of fuel cell vehicles – Analysis based on agent behaviour , 2008 .

[11]  Sanna Syri,et al.  The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emissions reduction: The case of Finland , 2005 .

[12]  M A Delucchi,et al.  An assessment of electric vehicles: technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance and policy initiatives , 2014, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[13]  Paulo Henrique de Mello Santana.  Cost-effectiveness as energy policy mechanisms: The paradox of technology-neutral and technology-specific policies in the short and long term , 2016 .

[14]  U. K. Rout,et al.  Energy and emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon , 2011 .

[15]  Christopher Yang,et al.  Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models - The MoCho-TIMES model , 2018 .

[16]  Paul Upham,et al.  Energy model, boundary object and societal lens , 2014 .

[17]  Gillian Harrison,et al.  Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union , 2017 .

[18]  Hanane Dagdougui,et al.  Models, methods and approaches for the planning and design of the future hydrogen supply chain , 2012 .

[19]  Wouter Nijs,et al.  The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation , 2016 .

[20]  Kalai Ramea,et al.  Achieving California's 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in 2050: Technology, policy and scenario analysis using CA-TIMES energy economic systems model , 2015 .

[21]  Zhenhong Lin,et al.  Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices , 2017 .

[22]  J. Ogden,et al.  The least-cost hydrogen for Southern California , 2008 .

[23]  K. Parks..  Hydrogen Deployment System Modeling Environment (HyDS ME) Documentation: Milestone Report FY 2006 , 2006 .

[24]  J. Sterman,et al.  Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems , 2008 .

[25]  Sara S. Metcalf,et al.  A system dynamics exploration of future automotive propulsion regimes , 2001 .

[26]  P. Meibom,et al.  Optimal investment paths for future renewable based energy systems—Using the optimisation model Balmorel , 2008 .

[27]  Sonia Yeh,et al.  Incorporating Behavioral Effects from Vehicle Choice Models into Bottom-Up Energy Sector Models , 2015 .

[28]  Detlef Stolten,et al.  Comparative Analysis of Infrastructures: Hydrogen Fueling and Electric Charging of Vehicles , 2017 .

[29]  Robert B. Jackson,et al.  Opportunities and barriers to pumped-hydro energy storage in the United States , 2011 .

[30]  Thomas Pregger,et al.  Hydrogen generation by electrolysis and storage in salt caverns: Potentials, economics and systems aspects with regard to the German energy transition , 2017 .

[31]  Jacopo Tattini,et al.  Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark – Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework , 2018 .

[32]  Bahman Shabani,et al.  Where does hydrogen fit in a sustainable energy economy , 2012 .

[33]  Gillian Harrison,et al.  Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios , 2018 .

[34]  Patrick E. Meyer,et al.  Modeling technology diffusion of complementary goods: The case of hydrogen vehicles and refueling infrastructure , 2009, Technovation.

[35]  Sha Fu,et al.  Long-Term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models , 2013 .

[36]  William F. Gale,et al.  Approaches and Techniques for Modelling CO2 Emissions from Road Transport , 2015 .

[37]  Volker Krey,et al.  Global energy‐climate scenarios and models: a review , 2014 .

[38]  Detlef P. van Vuuren,et al.  Climate impact of transportation A model comparison , 2013, Climatic Change.

[39]  A. Faaij,et al.  Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization , 2018, Applied Energy.

[40]  G. Goldstein,et al.  Documentation for the TIMES Model PART III , 2016 .

[41]  D. Stolten,et al.  Linking the Power and Transport Sectors—Part 1: The Principle of Sector Coupling , 2017 .

[42]  M. Ha-Duong,et al.  Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change , 2015 .

[43]  Lorraine Whitmarsh,et al.  Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles , 2010 .

[44]  Jillian Anable,et al.  Energy policy , 1974 .

[45]  Robert Gross,et al.  Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: Why policy needs to look beyond costs , 2010 .

[46]  Nouredine Hadjsaid,et al.  Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools , 2015 .

[47]  Ann Mari Svensson,et al.  Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050 , 2010 .

[48]  Raffaella Gerboni,et al.  Testing future hydrogen penetration at local scale through an optimisation tool , 2016 .

[49]  Eamonn Mulholland,et al.  Perspectives on decarbonizing the transport sector in the EU-28 , 2018 .

[50]  Andreas Schäfer,et al.  Introducing behavioral change in transportation into energy/economy/environment models , 2012 .

[51]  Pantelis Capros,et al.  Implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the EU: A systems analysis using the PRIMES model , 2018, Energy Policy.

[52]  System dynamics modelling for assessing promotion strategies of biofuels used in land transportation , 2012 .

[53]  Paul E. Dodds,et al.  The future of the UK gas network , 2013 .

[54]  Christian Bauer,et al.  Multi-criteria decision analysis of energy system transformation pathways: A case study for Switzerland , 2017 .

[55]  Weilong Huang,et al.  TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective☆ , 2016 .

[56]  Competitive low carbon economy in 2050 , 2013 .

[57]  Daniel H. Loughlin,et al.  An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Hydrogen Economy on Transportation, Energy Use, and Air Emissions , 2006, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[58]  Mohammad Reza Amin-Naseri,et al.  Energy models: Methods and characteristics , 2014 .

[59]  B. Nykvist,et al.  Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles , 2015 .

[60]  Sonia Yeh,et al.  Detailed assessment of global transport-energy models’ structures and projections , 2017 .

[61]  Christian von Hirschhausen,et al.  Designing a Model for the Global Energy System—GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) , 2017 .

[62]  Adam Hawkes,et al.  The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates , 2017, Nature Energy.

[63]  Opinion of the European Committee of the Regions — A European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility , 2017 .

[64]  Gillian Harrison,et al.  A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector , 2016 .

[65]  Stefan Hausberger,et al.  Well-To-Wheels Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels and Powertrains in the European Context, Tank-to-Wheels Report Heavy Duty Vehicles , 2018 .

[66]  Thiel Christian,et al.  The JRC-EU-TIMES model. Bioenergy potentials for EU and neighbouring countries , 2015 .

[67]  J. Forrester.  Industrial Dynamics , 1997 .

[68]  O. Rentz,et al.  Integration of a hydrogen economy into the German energy system: an optimising modelling approach , 2007 .

[69]  Sang Yong Park,et al.  Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects , 2011 .

[70]  Maryse Labriet,et al.  ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure , 2008, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[71]  Sonia and Christopher Yang Yeh,et al.  Modeling Optimal Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy in California: Impacts of Advanced Vehicles and Fuels on the Energy System , 2011 .

[72]  Christian Thiel,et al.  The effect of fiscal incentives on market penetration of electric vehicles : a pairwise comparison of total cost of ownership , 2017 .

[73]  P. Ahmadi,et al.  Comparative life cycle assessment of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles in different Canadian provinces , 2015 .

[74]  J. Bergh,et al.  Optimal diversity of renewable energy alternatives under multiple criteria: An application to the UK , 2016 .

[75]  Paul E. Dodds,et al.  A review of hydrogen production technologies for energy system models , 2012 .

[76]  Sonia Yeh,et al.  Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models , 2014 .

[77]  Simon Shepherd,et al.  A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation , 2014 .

[78]  Sahdia Maryam.  Review of modelling approaches used in the HSC context for the UK , 2017 .

[79]  Evelina Trutnevyte,et al.  Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition? , 2016 .

[80]  Brian Vad Mathiesen,et al.  A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems , 2010 .

[81]  Petros A. Pilavachi,et al.  Ex-post evaluation of European energy models , 2008 .

[82]  R. Kannan,et al.  Interplay between electricity and transport sectors – Integrating the Swiss car fleet and electricity system , 2014 .

[83]  Sonia Yeh,et al.  Integration of behavioral effects from vehicle choice models into long-term energy systems optimization models , 2018, Energy Economics.

[84]  Paul E. Dodds,et al.  Methodologies for representing the road transport sector in energy system models , 2014 .

[85]  M. Wei,et al.  Future costs of fuel cell electric vehicles in California using a learning rate approach , 2018 .

[86]  E. Avineri.  On the use and potential of behavioural economics from the perspective of transport and climate change , 2012 .

[87]  Jan Tomaschek,et al.  Energy system modelling and GIS to build an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for Gauteng Province, South Africa , 2016 .

[88]  Socrates Kypreos,et al.  Intermediate steps towards the 2000 W society in Switzerland: An energy–economic scenario analysis , 2008 .

[89]  P. Meibom,et al.  Role of hydrogen in future North European power system in 2060 , 2010 .

[90]  Brian Vad Mathiesen,et al.  A comparison between renewable transport fuels that can supplement or replace biofuels in a 100% renewable energy system , 2014 .

[91]  Franklin Farell.  Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area: Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system , 2014 .

[92]  Dr. Timur Gül.  Global EV Outlook 2019 , 2019 .

[93]  Detlef Stolten,et al.  Linking the Power and Transport Sectors—Part 2: Modelling a Sector Coupling Scenario for Germany , 2017 .

[94]  S. F. Lienin,et al.  Model aided policy development for the market penetration of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland , 2006 .

[95]  Peter Lund,et al.  Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity , 2015 .

[96]  E. Jochem,et al.  Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling , 2012 .

[97]  Maryse Labriet,et al.  A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada , 2013 .

[98]  Hannah Kosow,et al.  Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios , 2016 .

[99]  S. T. Mirabal,et al.  A Review of Hydrogen Production Technologies , 2003 .

[100]  Eamonn Mulholland,et al.  From technology pathways to policy roadmaps to enabling measures – A multi-model approach , 2017 .

[101]  Evelina Trutnevyte,et al.  The allure of energy visions: Are some visions better than others? , 2014 .

[102]  Nadia Maïzi,et al.  Carbon value dynamics for France: A key driver to support mitigation pledges at country scale , 2011 .

[103]  Vincent Mahieu,et al.  Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the european context , 2004 .

[104]  Socrates Kypreos,et al.  An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM) , 2009 .

[105]  Ilkka Keppo,et al.  Design of a European sustainable hydrogen model Model structure and data sources , 2011 .

[106]  Björn A. Sandén,et al.  The elusive quest for technology-neutral policies , 2011 .

[107]  Sonia Yeh,et al.  Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling , 2017 .

[108]  J. Ogden,et al.  Renewable and low carbon hydrogen for California-Modeling the long term evolution of fuel infrastructure using a quasi-spatial TIMES model , 2013 .

[109]  C. Welch.  Lessons Learned from Alternative Transportation Fuels: Modeling Transition Dynamics , 2006 .

[110]  Jean-Philippe Waaub,et al.  Electrification of the Canadian Road Transportation Sector: A 2050 Outlook with TIMES-Canada , 2013 .

[111]  P. Mokhtarian,et al.  Do changes in neighborhood characteristics lead to changes in travel behavior? A structural equations modeling approach , 2007 .

[112]  Hyways Partnership.,et al.  HyWays: The European Hydrogen Roadmap , 2008 .

[113]  Detlef Stolten,et al.  Power to Gas: Technological Overview, Systems Analysis and Economic Assessment , 2015 .

[114]  – Declaration of Intent " Become competitive in the global battery sector to drive e ‐ mobility forward " , 2016 .

[115]  Christopher Yang,et al.  Determining the lowest-cost hydrogen delivery mode , 2007 .

[116]  G. Morrison,et al.  Relative economic competitiveness of light-duty battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles , 2018 .

[117]  Socrates Kypreos,et al.  Supporting hydrogen based transportation: case studies with Global MARKAL Model , 2008, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[118]  Gillian Harrison,et al.  An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe , 2017 .

[119]  F. Gracceva,et al.  Hydrogen perspectives in Italy: Analysis of possible deployment scenarios , 2008 .

[120]  Paul Ekins,et al.  A portfolio of powertrains for the UK: An energy systems analysis , 2014 .

[121]  Aie.  World Energy Investment 2019 , 2019 .

[122]  Kalai Ramea,et al.  The cost of electrifying private transport – Evidence from an empirical consumer choice model of Ireland and Denmark , 2018, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment.

[123]  Malte Schwoon,et al.  Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles , 2006 .

[124]  M. Weeda,et al.  The hydrogen economy – Vision or reality? , 2015 .

[125]  P. Ekins,et al.  Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for heating: A review , 2015 .

[126]  J. P. Deane,et al.  Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland , 2014 .

[127]  Thiel Christian,et al.  Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM): An Introduction , 2016 .

[128]  G. P. Hammond,et al.  Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK , 2008, 2008 First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA).

[129]  E. Endo.  Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in japan by using the energy system model MARKAL , 2007 .

[130]  A. M. Férriz,et al.  HyUnder – Hydrogen Underground Storage at Large Scale: Case Study Spain , 2015 .

[131]  W. Nijs,et al.  How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system , 2016 .

[132]  Yolanda Lechón,et al.  Long-term behaviour of CO2 emissions from cement production in Spain: scenario analysis using an energy optimisation model , 2015 .

[133]  The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels , 2018 .

[134]  Sten Karlsson,et al.  Cost-effective energy carriers for transport – The role of the energy supply system in a carbon-constrained world , 2010 .

[135]  J. P. Deane,et al.  Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system , 2013 .

[136]  Jonn Axsen,et al.  Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the U.S. Passenger Vehicle Sector , 2017 .

[137]  Till Bunsen,et al.  Global EV Outlook 2018 , 2018 .

[138]  Tadhg O’ Mahony,et al.  Integrated scenarios for energy: A methodology for the short term , 2014 .

[139]  Wolf Fichtner,et al.  Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market , 2018 .

[140]  A. Contreras,et al.  Market penetration analysis of the use of hydrogen in the road transport sector of the Madrid region, using MARKAL , 2009 .

[141]  B. Ó. Gallachóir,et al.  Improvements in the representation of behavior in integrated energy and transport models , 2018, International Journal of Sustainable Transportation.

[142]  V. Kulmer.  Promoting alternative, environmentally friendly passenger transport technologies: Directed technological change in a bottom-up/top-down CGE model , 2013 .

[143]  David L. McCollum,et al.  Deep greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for California – Strategic implications from the CA-TIMES energy-economic systems model , 2012 .

[144]  Joan M. Ogden,et al.  Modeling Optimal Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy in California: Appendices and Supplemental Material for California TIMES (CA-TIMES) Model , 2014 .

[145]  Brian Bush,et al.  Using system dynamics to model the transition to biofuels in the United States , 2008, 2008 IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering.

[146]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[147]  Toshihiko Nakata,et al.  Energy modeling on cleaner vehicles for reducing CO2 emissions in Japan , 2003 .

[148]  Tarvydas Dalius,et al.  Li-ion batteries for mobility and stationary storage applications , 2018 .