An assessment of the adaptability and validity of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) Modeling System: Summary report: Draft report

This report presents a summary of results of an assessment of the adaptability, sensitivity, and accuracy of the SEARS model. Specifically, after describing the methods used in the analysis, the report presents a discussion of each aspect of the model evaluation process. The adaptation of the system to three states (Louisiana, Wyoming, and Texas) is described in light of the three key aspects of model transfer: collection and preparation of input data, model code alterations, and resources required. The second major topic discussed is the sensitivity analysis, which consisted of evaluations of the model's ability to simulate the impact process and to show the expected the acuracy of the model. This analysis consisted of the projection of economic and demographic factors from 1970 to 1980, using data inputs for 1970, followed by comparisons of the model's projections to reported values from the 1980 Census and similar sources for regions, counties and cities in the three states. The analyses described in this report thus provide a comprehensive assessment of the SEARS methodology and one of the most complete and comprehensive assessments ever performed of the validity of a socioeconomic assessment model. 44 refs., 6 tabs.