Schedule-Based Route Choice Estimation with Automatic Fare Collection Data for Rail Transit Passengers

This paper presents a schedule-based passenger’s route choice estimation model for a multi-operator rail transit network, using Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. By introducing the Train Schedule Connection Network, the route choice estimation is converted into a feasible paths set generation and weighted assignment problem. A major factor in route choice, the fail-to-board (FtB) phenomenon due to overcrowding in peak periods, is modeled. A method for estimating the FtB parameters is described and a weighted assignment function based on FtB parameters is provided. The case of a typical commuting Origin-Destination pair in the Beijing Subway is analyzed in order to demonstrate the capability of the proposed model. Results show that passenger route choice can be effectively estimated by the model. The model has potential for locating network capacity bottlenecks at the train run level and for evaluating the effects of adjusting train timetables on passengers’ route choice.