In the grammatical category voice in Japanese, an overall morphological change reorganizing the conjugation paradigm is currently underway. The process includes three variable phenomena: saInsertion, ra-Deletion and re-Insertion. This paper gives a unified account as well as a prediction of the ongoing global paradigm optimization in Japanese voice, in light of Probabilistic OT (Boersma and Hayes 2001, among others), employing a large-scale corpus. I employed the Corpus of Spontaneous Japanese (Maekawa 2004, henceforth CSJ). Firstly, I characterize the chronological change of the distribution of each phenomenon based on the observed data. Secondly, I formalize the changes in OT terms; in turn, I model and predict the change within the framework of Stochastic OT. The results show that the gradient approximation of the ranking values of each constraint caused the emergence and the gradual increase of innovative forms, and that the overall change in voice can be explained by the dynamic interactions of a small set of constraints.
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