Are Accruals Mispriced? Evidence from Tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model

This paper proposes a risk-based explanation for the accrual anomaly. Risk is measured using a four-factor model motivated by the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. Tests of the model suggest that a considerable portion of the cross-sectional variation in average returns to high and low accrual firms is explained by risk. The four-factor model also performs better than some other widely used models in pricing a number of different hedge portfolios.

[1]  Changbao Wu,et al.  Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resampling Methods in Regression Analysis , 1986 .

[2]  Josef Lakonishok,et al.  Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk , 1993 .

[3]  Mark M. Carhart On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance , 1997 .

[4]  E. Fama,et al.  Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds , 1993 .

[5]  Ashiq Ali,et al.  Accruals and Future Stock Returns: Tests of the Naïve Investor Hypothesis , 2000 .

[6]  Marc R. Reinganum Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values , 1981 .

[7]  Jeffrey L. Callen,et al.  Do Accruals Drive Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis , 2003 .

[8]  R. Banz,et al.  The relationship between return and market value of common stocks , 1981 .

[9]  Hans R. Stoll,et al.  Transaction costs and the small firm effect , 1983 .

[10]  N. Liu,et al.  The Value Spread as a Predictor of Returns , 2005 .

[11]  Gerald A. Feltham,et al.  Valuation and Clean Surplus Accounting for Operating and Financial Activities , 1995 .

[12]  Hong Xie THE MISPRICING OF ABNORMAL ACCRUALS , 2001 .

[13]  Lu Zhang,et al.  Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns , 2002, Journal of Political Economy.

[14]  Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals , 2004 .

[15]  S. Kothari,et al.  Agency Theory of Overvalued Equity as an Explanation for the Accrual Anomaly , 2006 .

[16]  S. P. Kothari,et al.  Another Look at the Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns , 1995 .

[17]  F. Black,et al.  The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tests , 2006 .

[18]  R. Ball Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates , 1978 .

[19]  R. C. Merton,et al.  On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates , 1974, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[20]  E. Fama,et al.  Efficient Capital Markets : II , 2007 .

[21]  E. Fama,et al.  Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns , 1995 .

[22]  Jacob K. Thomas,et al.  Inventory Changes and Future Returns , 2001 .

[23]  P. M. Fairfield,et al.  Accrued Earnings and Growth: Implications for Future Profitability and Market Mispricing , 2003 .

[24]  John Y. Campbell,et al.  What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns , 1991 .

[25]  Stephen A. Ross,et al.  A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio , 1989 .

[26]  A. Lo,et al.  Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models , 1989 .

[27]  R. Shiller,et al.  The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors , 1986 .

[28]  J. Francis,et al.  Accounting Anomalies and Information Uncertainty , 2003 .

[29]  Lu Zhang,et al.  The Value Premium , 2002 .

[30]  D. Collins,et al.  Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research , 1999 .

[31]  J. Campbell Stock Returns and the Term Structure , 1985 .

[32]  E. Fama,et al.  BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED RETURNS ON STOCKS AND BONDS , 1989 .

[33]  J. Campbell Asset Pricing at the Millennium , 2000, The Journal of Finance.

[34]  Yihong Xia,et al.  Estimation and Test of a Simple Model of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing , 2002 .

[35]  Shivaram Rajgopal,et al.  Why is the Accrual Anomaly not Arbitraged Away? The Role of Idiosyncratic Risk and Transaction Costs , 2006 .

[36]  E. Fama,et al.  Multifactor Portfolio Efficiency and Multifactor Asset Pricing , 1996, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[37]  V. Bernard,et al.  Accounting-Based Stock Price Anomalies: Separating Market Inefficiencies from Risk* , 1997 .

[38]  Christopher Polk,et al.  The Value Spread , 2001 .

[39]  Richard Roll,et al.  A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory''s Tests: Part I , 1977 .

[40]  Melbinger Ms The other shoe drops--FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) issues its proposed statement on employers' accounting for postretirement medical benefits. , 1989 .

[41]  Shivaram Rajgopal,et al.  Value-Glamour and Accruals Mispricing: One Anomaly or Two? , 2004 .

[42]  Ralitsa Petkova Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables? , 2005 .

[43]  Clifford S. Asness,et al.  Style Timing , 2000 .

[44]  R. Jagannathan,et al.  The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns , 1996 .

[45]  Chul W. Park,et al.  The Reversal of Abnormal Accruals and the Market Valuation of Earnings Surprises , 2001 .

[46]  Mark E. Vargus,et al.  Insider Trading, Earnings Quality, and Accrual Mispricing , 2001 .

[47]  John H. Cochrane,et al.  A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model , 1996, Journal of Political Economy.

[48]  Jim Kyung-Soo Liew,et al.  Can Book-to-Market, Size, and Momentum Be Risk Factors that Predict Economic Growth? , 1999 .

[49]  Richard G. Sloan Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows About Future Earnings , 1998 .

[50]  Richard G. Sloan,et al.  Do Analysts and Auditors Use Information in Accruals , 2001 .

[51]  Ronald J. Lanstein,et al.  Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency , 1985 .

[52]  J. Chen,et al.  Intertemporal CAPM and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns , 2002 .

[53]  Olivier Ledoit,et al.  A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices , 2004 .

[54]  David Easley,et al.  Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns , 2002 .

[55]  Shivaram Rajgopal,et al.  Why is the Accrual Anomaly Not Arbitraged Away? , 2004 .

[56]  B. Lev,et al.  The Persistence of the Accruals Anomaly , 2004 .

[57]  S. Kothari Capital Markets Research in Accounting , 2001 .

[58]  Robert Radcliffe,et al.  Liquidity and stock returns: An alternative test , 1998 .

[59]  Tuomo Vuolteenaho What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns? , 1999 .

[60]  Richard G. Sloan,et al.  Accrual Reliability, Earnings Persistence and Stock Prices , 2005 .

[61]  Guofu Zhou,et al.  A critique of the stochastic discount factor methodology , 1999 .

[62]  J. Campbell,et al.  By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[63]  D. Collins,et al.  Earnings-Based and Accrual-Based Market Anomalies: One Effect or Two? , 1999 .

[64]  Olivier Ledoit,et al.  Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection , 2003 .

[65]  Yuhang Xing,et al.  Default Risk in Equity Returns , 2004 .

[66]  Jeffrey L. Callen,et al.  Do Accruals Drive Firm-Level Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis , 2004 .

[67]  S. Titman,et al.  Financial Distress and Corporate Performance , 1994 .

[68]  Ilia D. Dichev Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk , 1998 .

[69]  John Y. Campbell,et al.  Understanding Risk and Return , 1993, Journal of Political Economy.

[70]  M. Lettau,et al.  Resurrecting the (C)Capm: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Wre Time-Varying , 1999 .

[71]  E. Fama EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* , 1970 .

[72]  Yuhang Xing,et al.  Sector Investment Growth Rates and the Cross Section of Equity Returns , 2006 .

[73]  R. C. Merton,et al.  AN INTERTEMPORAL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL , 1973 .

[74]  Yihong Xia,et al.  Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model , 2001 .

[75]  H. White A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity , 1980 .

[76]  Stock Market Anomalies: What Can We Learn from Repurchases and Insider Trading? , 2006 .

[77]  Tzachi Zach Evaluating the 'Accrual-Fixation' Hypothesis as an Explanation for the Accrual Anomaly , 2006 .

[78]  Extreme Accruals, Earnings Quality, and Investor Mispricing , 2004 .

[79]  Kalok Chan,et al.  Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms , 1991 .

[80]  L. Hansen Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators , 1982 .

[81]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY , 1968 .

[82]  Raymond Kan,et al.  GMM tests of stochastic discount factor models with useless factors , 1999 .

[83]  V. Bernard,et al.  Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings , 1990 .

[84]  J. Campbell Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data , 1992 .

[85]  Gregory Kadlec,et al.  An empirical examination of the amortized spread , 1998 .

[86]  S. Ross,et al.  Economic Forces and the Stock Market , 1986 .

[87]  Adrian Pagan,et al.  Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors. , 1984 .

[88]  D. Collins,et al.  Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals , 2003 .

[89]  Jeffrey L. Callen,et al.  Domestic and Foreign Earnings, Stock Return Variability, and the Impact of Investor Sophistication , 2004 .

[90]  R. Shiller,et al.  Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends , 1988 .

[91]  Shivaram Rajgopal,et al.  The Accrual Anomaly: International Evidence , 2005 .

[92]  Susan G. Watts,et al.  Bankruptcy classification errors in the 1980s: An empirical analysis of Altman's and Ohlson's models , 1996 .

[93]  K. French,et al.  Expected stock returns and volatility , 1987 .

[94]  Jay Shanken On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models , 1992 .

[95]  E. Fama,et al.  The Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns , 1992 .

[96]  Michael C. Jensen,et al.  Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets. , 1973 .

[97]  E. Fama,et al.  Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[98]  S. P. Kothari,et al.  Stock Returns, Aggregate Earnings Surprises, and Behavioral Finance , 2006 .

[99]  Is the Accrual Anomaly a Global Anomaly? , 2005 .