Jobs, strikes, and wars: Probability models for duration

Abstract A class of stochastic models with behaviorally meaningful parameters and manpower planning implications is presented. These models are used to reanalyze some previously published data on the durations of wars, strikes, and jobs. Job durations are found to be qualitatively different from strike durations. The concepts developed in this paper also allow researchers to “eyeball” and plot their data better even if a formal statistical analysis is not performed.

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