Multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure, economic scenario analysis

Over the past 10 years, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has conducted over 150 detailed multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure scenario analyses of a wide range of man-made and natural disasters. Using a model-based implementation of the Department of Homeland Security risk management framework, NISAC analyzes scenarios ranging from extreme-event situational awareness to long-term strategic policy for improved homeland security and resilience to these events. This article describes the essential elements of the NISAC scenario analysis process, the toolkit of subject-matter expertise and models used, with a particular focus on the economics component. An example set of Hurricane Katrina economic-analysis results is used to illustrate basic elements of NISAC economics scenario analysis.

[1]  Survivors Insurance,et al.  County business patterns , 1948 .

[2]  Steffen Bayer,et al.  Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world , 2004 .

[3]  John G. Voeller.  Wiley handbook of science and technology for homeland security , 2008 .

[4]  Stéphane Hallegatte,et al.  An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[5]  David Dawson,et al.  Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security , 2011 .

[6]  Wassily Leontief.  Input-Output Economics , 1966 .

[7]  Stéphane Hallegatte,et al.  The Economics of Natural Disasters: Concepts and Methods , 2010 .

[8]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[9]  J. Albala-Bertrand,et al.  Natural disaster situations and growth: A macroeconomic model for sudden disaster impacts , 1993 .

[10]  Ilan Noy.  The macroeconomic consequences of disasters , 2009 .

[11]  Laura M. Glass,et al.  Social contact networks for the spread of pandemic influenza in children and teenagers , 2008, BMC public health.

[12]  Eric Strobl,et al.  The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties , 2011, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[13]  Matthew E. Kahn.  The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions , 2005, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[14]  Eric Strobl.  The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from US Coastal Counties , 2008 .

[15]  James P. Peerenboom,et al.  Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies , 2001 .