An individual‐based model of the early life history of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic, simulating transport, growth and mortality

The main purpose of this paper is to provide the core description of the modelling exercise within the Shelf Edge Advection Mortality And Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for the prediction of year-to-year survival of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic. The IBM is one of two components of the model system. The first component is a circulation model to provide physical input data for the IBM. The circulation model is a geographical variant of the HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The second component is the IBM, which is an i-space configuration model in which large numbers of individuals are followed as discrete entities to simulate the transport, growth and mortality of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae. Larval and post-larval growth is modelled as a function of length, temperature and food distribution; mortality is modelled as a function of length and absolute growth rate. Each particle is considered as a super-individual representing 10 super(6) eggs at the outset of the simulation, and then declining according to the mortality function. Simulations were carried out for the years 1998-2000. Results showed concentrations of particles at Porcupine Bank and the adjacent Irish shelf, along the Celtic Sea shelf-edge, and in the southern Bay of Biscay. High survival was observed only at Porcupine and the adjacent shelf areas, and, more patchily, around the coastal margin of Biscay. The low survival along the shelf-edge of the Celtic Sea was due to the consistently low estimates of food availability in that area.

[1]  D. Danielssen,et al.  The development and mortality of mackerel eggs (Scomber scombrus L.) in different temperatures , 1977 .

[2]  E. Maier‐Reimer,et al.  On the spreading of power plant cooling water in a tidal river applied to the river Elbe , 1978 .

[3]  W. A. Dawson,et al.  The estimation of a mackerel (Scomber scombrus L.) spawning stock size by plankton survey , 1981 .

[4]  S. Levitus.  Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean , 1982 .

[5]  Jan O. Backhaus,et al.  A three-dimensional model for the simulation of shelf sea dynamics , 1985 .

[6]  D. M. Ware,et al.  Early Life History of Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence , 1985 .

[7]  L. Crowder,et al.  Larval Size and Recruitment Mechanisms in Fishes: Toward a Conceptual Framework , 1988 .

[8]  J. Anderson.  A Review of Size Dependant Survival During Pre-recruit Stages of Fishes in Relation to Recruitment , 1988 .

[9]  A. Thompson.  Mackerel ( Scomber scombrus ) egg mortality: the Western mackerel stock in Biscay and the Western Approaches in 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1986 , 1989 .

[10]  R. Haynes,et al.  A poleward flow along the Atlantic coast of the Iberian peninsula , 1990 .

[11]  R. Pingree,et al.  Structure, strength and seasonality of the slope currents in the Bay of Biscay region , 1990, Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom.

[12]  Pierre Pepin,et al.  Effect of Temperature and Size on Development, Mortality, and Survival Rates of the Pelagic Early Life History Stages of Marine Fish , 1991 .

[13]  L. Crowder,et al.  Empirical and Theoretical Approaches to Size-Based Interactions and Recruitment Variability in Fishes , 1992 .

[14]  D. DeAngelis,et al.  Individual-Based Models and Approaches in Ecology , 1992 .

[15]  R. Pingree.  Flow of surface waters to the west of the British Isles and in the Bay of Biscay , 1993 .

[16]  Donald L. DeAngelis,et al.  Growth Rate Variation and Larval Survival: Inferences from an Individual-Based Size-Dependent Predation Model , 1993 .

[17]  P. Pepin.  An Appraisal of the Size-Dependent Mortality Hypothesis for Larval Fish: Comparison of a Multispecies Study with an Empirical Review , 1993 .

[18]  J. C. Rice,et al.  Forecasting abundance from habitat measures using nonparametric density estimation methods , 1993 .

[19]  E. Svendsen,et al.  Modelling the transport of particles in the North Sea with reference to sandeel larvae , 1994 .

[20]  R. Knust,et al.  Simulating the dispersion of vertically migrating sprat larvae (Sprattus sprattus (L.)) in the German Bight with a circulation and transport model system , 1994 .

[21]  Marten Scheffer,et al.  Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis , 1995 .

[22]  A. H. Taylor,et al.  A modelling investigation of copepod egg production in the Irish Sea , 1995 .

[23]  Napp,et al.  Contrasting years of prey levels, feeding conditions and mortality of larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the western Gulf of Alaska , 1995 .

[24]  Francisco E. Werner,et al.  Trophodynamic and advective influences on Georges Bank larval cod and haddock , 1996 .

[25]  Albert J. Hermann,et al.  Interannual variability of the early life history of walleye pollock near Shelikof Strait as inferred from a spatially explicit, individual-based model , 1996 .

[26]  N. Hillgruber,et al.  Feeding of larval blue whiting and Atlantic mackerel: a comparison of foraging strategies , 1997 .

[27]  S. Coombs,et al.  A numerical model of the dispersion of blue whiting larvae, Micromesistius poutassou (Risso), in the eastern North Atlantic , 1997 .

[28]  Heath,et al.  Bio-physical modelling of the early life stages of haddock, Melanogrammus aeglefinus, in the North Sea , 1998 .

[29]  Temperature- and size-dependent growth of larval and early juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua): a comparative study of Norwegian coastal cod and northeast Arctic cod , 1999 .

[30]  S. Coombs,et al.  Diet of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) larvae at the shelf-edge to the south-west of the British Isles and the incidence of piscivory and coprophagy , 1999 .

[31]  Albert J. Hermann,et al.  Applied and theoretical considerations for constructing spatially explicit individual-based models of marine larval fish that include multiple trophic levels , 2001 .

[32]  N. Hillgruber,et al.  Small-scale patterns in distribution and feeding of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus L.) larvae in the Celtic Sea with special regard to intra-cohort cannibalism , 2001, Helgoland Marine Research.

[33]  S. Coombs,et al.  Seasonal and ontogenetic changes in the vertical distribution of eggs and larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus L.) and horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus L.) , 2001 .

[34]  B. MacKenzie,et al.  Larval trophodynamics, turbulence, and drift on Georges Bank: A sensitivity analysis of cod and haddock , 2001 .

[35]  Daniel R. Lynch,et al.  Spatially-explicit individual based modeling of marine populations: A review of the advances in the 1990s , 2001 .

[36]  S. Coombs,et al.  An individual-based growth and transport model of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic , 2001 .

[37]  C. Mohn,et al.  Observations of the mass and flow field at Porcupine Bank , 2002 .

[38]  D. Reid,et al.  Investigating spatio-temporal change in spawning activity by Atlantic mackerel between 1977 and 1998 using generalized additive models , 2002 .

[39]  Modelling the temperature mediation of growth in larval fish , 2002 .