Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and attribution and prediction of climate: Progress since the fourth assessment

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is a primary user of studies of the ocean and how it is changing. Following an introduction to the IPCC, the role of the ocean in climate is outlined, and the main findings from the 2007 IPCC assessment are described, along with outstanding issues for ocean science. The progress in addressing these issues is briefly discussed along with some recommendations for ocean observations.

[1]  F. Molteni,et al.  INITIALIZATION FOR SEASONAL AND DECADAL FORECASTS , 2011 .

[2]  R. S. Nerem.  Observations of Sea Level Change: What Have We Learned and What Are the Remaining Challenges? , 2010 .

[3]  T. Lee,et al.  Observational Requirements for Global-Scale Ocean Climate Analysis: Lessons from Ocean State Estimation , 2010 .

[4]  Andrew J. Watson,et al.  A global sea surface carbon observing system: assessment of changing sea surface CO 2 and air-sea CO 2 fluxes , 2010 .

[5]  Patrick Heimbach,et al.  Ocean information provided through ensemble ocean syntheses , 2010 .

[6]  J. Willis,et al.  Future observations for monitoring global ocean heat content , 2010 .

[7]  Nicholas R. Bates,et al.  An International Observational Network for Ocean Acidification , 2010 .

[8]  Tong Lee,et al.  Ocean State Estimation for Climate Research , 2010 .

[9]  Jacqueline Boutin,et al.  Resolving the global surface salinity field and variations by blending satellite and in situ observations , 2010 .

[10]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Atmospheric Reanalyses: A Major Resource for Ocean Product Development and Modeling , 2010 .

[11]  Johanna Baehr,et al.  The present and future system for measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport , 2010 .

[12]  A. Cazenave,et al.  Ocean temperature and salinity contributions to global and regional sea-level change. , 2010 .

[13]  W. Landman.  Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[14]  Willem A. Landman,et al.  Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M.M.B. Tignor, H. LeRoy Miller, Jr. and Z. Chen (Eds.) : book review , 2010 .

[15]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Decadal climate prediction: opportunities and challenges , 2010 .

[16]  D. A. Smith,et al.  Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction , 2010 .

[17]  John Gould,et al.  ARGO - a decade of progress , 2010 .

[18]  M. V. Hood,et al.  Ship-based Repeat Hydrography: A strategy for a sustained global programme: A Community White Paper , 2010 .

[19]  K. Haines,et al.  A new perspective on warming of the global oceans , 2009 .

[20]  K. Haines,et al.  Estimating Oceanic Heat Content Change Using Isotherms , 2009 .

[21]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy , 2009 .

[22]  Dean Roemmich,et al.  The 2004-2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program , 2009 .

[23]  J. Walsh,et al.  Arctic Cloud Fraction and Radiative Fluxes in Atmospheric Reanalyses , 2009 .

[24]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections , 2009 .

[25]  Detlef Stammer,et al.  Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic , 2009 .

[26]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: scientific developments needed to understand, predict, and respond to climate change. , 2009 .

[27]  S. Häkkinen,et al.  Shifting surface currents in the northern North Atlantic Ocean , 2009 .

[28]  J. Graham Cogley,et al.  Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: comparison and joint analysis , 2009 .

[29]  Taro Takahashi,et al.  Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2 , 2009 .

[30]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Earth's Global Energy Budget , 2009 .

[31]  E. Leuliette,et al.  Closing the sea level rise budget with altimetry, Argo, and GRACE , 2009 .

[32]  David L. T. Anderson,et al.  Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill , 2009 .

[33]  Guillaume Ramillien,et al.  Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo , 2009 .

[34]  F. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Decadal Variability : processes , predictability and prediction , 2009 .

[35]  S. Rintoul,et al.  The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change , 2008 .

[36]  John A. Church,et al.  Changing Expendable Bathythermograph Fall Rates and Their Impact on Estimates of Thermosteric Sea Level Rise , 2008 .

[37]  G. Johnson,et al.  Estimating Annual Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Anomalies despite Irregular In Situ Ocean Sampling* , 2008 .

[38]  P. Stott,et al.  Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes , 2008 .

[39]  G. Johnson,et al.  Warming and Freshening in the Abyssal Southeastern Indian Ocean , 2008 .

[40]  D. Chambers,et al.  GRACE observes small‐scale mass loss in Greenland , 2008 .

[41]  S. Gille.  Decadal-Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean , 2008 .

[42]  Peter J. Gleckler,et al.  Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise , 2008, Nature.

[43]  J. Willis,et al.  Assessing the globally averaged sea level budget on seasonal to interannual timescales , 2008 .

[44]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The Annual Cycle of the Energy Budget. Part I: Global Mean and Land–Ocean Exchanges , 2008 .

[45]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  The Annual Cycle of the Energy Budget. Part II: Meridional Structures and Poleward Transports , 2008 .

[46]  D. Stammer,et al.  Decadal Sea Level Changes in the 50-Year GECCO Ocean Synthesis , 2008 .

[47]  L. Kornblueh,et al.  Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector , 2008, Nature.

[48]  S. Jevrejeva,et al.  Relative importance of mass and volume changes to global sea level rise , 2008 .

[49]  M. Vellinga,et al.  Large-Scale Atlantic Salinity Changes over the Last Half-Century: A Model–Observation Comparison , 2008 .

[50]  B. Chao,et al.  Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea Level , 2008, Science.

[51]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum , 2008 .

[52]  S. J. Lambert,et al.  Multi‐model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature , 2008 .

[53]  A. Gordon,et al.  Sea Surface Salinity Trends over Fifty Years Within the Subtropical North Atlantic , 2008 .

[54]  M. Susan Lozier,et al.  The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic , 2008, Science.

[55]  S. Bacon,et al.  Reversal of the 1960s to 1990s freshening trend in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas , 2008 .

[56]  K. Lambeck,et al.  Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future , 2008 .

[57]  Eric Rignot,et al.  Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling , 2008 .

[58]  R. Cohen,et al.  The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the , 2008 .

[59]  C. Wunsch,et al.  Decadal Trends in Sea Level Patterns : 1993-2004 , 2007 .

[60]  S. Tett,et al.  Isolating the signal of ocean global warming , 2007 .

[61]  S. Levitus,et al.  Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems , 2007 .

[62]  G. Johnson,et al.  Recent Bottom Water Warming in the Pacific Ocean , 2007 .

[63]  A. Rosati,et al.  System Design and Evaluation of Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation for Global Oceanic Climate Studies , 2007 .

[64]  M. Balmaseda,et al.  Impact of Argo on analyses of the global ocean , 2007 .

[65]  Gregory C. Johnson,et al.  Correction to “Recent cooling of the upper ocean” , 2007 .

[66]  S. P. Anderson,et al.  Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st Century , 2007, Science.

[67]  J. Marotzke,et al.  Temporal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N , 2007, Science.

[68]  A. Troccoli,et al.  Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[69]  Stephen Cusack,et al.  Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model , 2007, Science.

[70]  Robert F. Adler,et al.  Tropical Rainfall Variability on Interannual-to-Interdecadal and Longer Time Scales Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product , 2007 .

[71]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Estimates of the Global Water Budget and Its Annual Cycle Using Observational and Model Data , 2007 .

[72]  J. Canadell,et al.  Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[73]  Anny Cazenave,et al.  Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections , 2007, Science.

[74]  A. Cazenave,et al.  Estimation of steric sea level variations from combined GRACE and Jason-1 data , 2007 .

[75]  Mark Carson,et al.  Is the World Ocean Warming? Upper-Ocean Temperature Trends: 1950–2000 , 2007 .

[76]  S. Riser,et al.  Decadal Spinup of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre , 2007 .

[77]  K. Koltermann,et al.  How much is the ocean really warming? , 2007 .

[78]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Global mean and land-ocean exchanges , 2007 .

[79]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level , 2007 .

[80]  Takeshi Kawano,et al.  Bottom water warming along the pathway of lower circumpolar deep water in the Pacific Ocean , 2006 .

[81]  J. Gregory,et al.  Simulated Global-Mean Sea Level Changes over the Last Half-Millennium , 2006 .

[82]  J. Willis,et al.  Recent cooling of the upper ocean , 2006 .

[83]  S. Doney,et al.  Recent western South Atlantic bottom water warming , 2006 .

[84]  T. Barnett,et al.  Anthropogenic Warming of the Oceans: Observations and Model Results , 2006 .

[85]  N. White,et al.  A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise , 2006 .

[86]  H. Bryden,et al.  Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N , 2005, Nature.

[87]  J. Arblaster,et al.  Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content , 2005, Nature.

[88]  B. Santer,et al.  Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans , 2005, Science.

[89]  Timothy P. Boyer,et al.  Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003 , 2005 .

[90]  N. White,et al.  A 20 th century acceleration in global sea-level rise , 2005 .

[91]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The flow of energy through the earth's climate system , 2004 .

[92]  Nicolas Gruber,et al.  The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2 , 2004, Science.

[93]  K. Lambeck,et al.  Estimates of the Regional Distribution of Sea Level Rise over the 1950–2000 Period , 2004 .

[94]  Michael Botzet,et al.  Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature , 2004 .

[95]  Masao Fukasawa,et al.  Bottom water warming in the North Pacific Ocean , 2004, Nature.

[96]  R. Nerem,et al.  Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason Altimeter Data to Construct a Continuous Record of Mean Sea Level Change , 2004 .