Coalition possibility of riparian countries via game theory and fuzzy logic models

[1] In many respects, water resources allocation problems have fuzzy characteristics owing to uncertainty and imprecision not only as numerical data but also as linguistic data, in addition to the political nature of resource allocation. All classical techniques require numerical data and cannot treat linguistic data, but fuzzy inference systems (FIS) can deal with both types of data. Hence, it is suitable to reflect the dynamic nature of country benefits, reflective variations in the main drainage and subdrainage basin flows, and various system parameters in search of a coalition among a few riparian countries. The size of core, which is generated from a series of linear programming (LP) optimization models and game theory concepts, shows the potential extra benefit advantage of being in grand coalition to all parties, but it does not provide a sufficient condition to assemble a robust coalition unless an agreeable allocation scheme or principle is provided. In this respect, there is a fuzzy link between being in the grand coalition and percentage share received from a core. Hence, a proper FIS is proposed, and the necessary steps are developed with the Shapley value and the core as game theory methods, which provide a methodological base in the evaluation of possible allocation schemes among the parties. The application of the methodology is presented to search for coalition possibilities among the riparian countries: Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Basic results are generated over the application of the Inter-Temporal Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model, which is an optimization model for the allocation of scarce water resources considering agricultural and urban uses, energy generation, and conveyance costs in the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

[1]  W. A. Mitchell,et al.  The Euphrates River and the Southeast Anatolia Development Project , 1991 .

[2]  William D. Coplin,et al.  Everyman's Prince: A guide to understanding your political problems , 1976 .

[3]  P. Rogers.  The value of cooperation in resolving international river basin disputes , 1993 .

[4]  A. Tanzi.  Codifying the minimum standards of the law of international watercourses: remarks on part one and a half , 1997 .

[5]  Clive D. Lipchin,et al.  Conflict and Water Use in the Middle East , 2005 .

[6]  Aaron T. Wolf,et al.  International Water Conflict Resolution: Lessons from Comparative Analysis , 1997 .

[7]  A. Dinar,et al.  Middle East Hydropolitics and Equity Measures for Water-Sharing Agreements , 1994 .

[8]  L. Shapley.  A Value for n-person Games , 1988 .

[9]  M. Franchini,et al.  Fuzzy unit hydrograph , 2006 .

[10]  B. Kosko.  Fuzzy Thinking: The New Science of Fuzzy Logic , 1993 .

[11]  R. Young,et al.  Modeling Intrastate and Interstate Markets for Colorado River Water Resources , 1994 .

[12]  Zekai Sen,et al.  Fuzzy Logic and Hydrological Modeling , 2009 .

[13]  Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu.  A Game Theoretic Approach to Assess the Impacts of Major Investments on Transboundary Water Resources: The Case of the Euphrates and Tigris , 2009 .

[14]  T. Naff,et al.  Water: An Emerging Issue in the Middle East? , 1985 .

[15]  H. D. Altinbilek.  Water and Land Resources Development in Southeastern Turkey , 1997 .

[16]  C. Flint.  Recent Developments of the International Law Commission Regarding International Watercourses and Their Implications for the Nile River , 1995 .

[17]  Markus Disse,et al.  Fuzzy rule-based models for infiltration , 1993 .

[18]  N. Kliot.  Water resources and conflict in the Middle East , 1993 .

[19]  Jean-Michel Guldmann,et al.  Multiobjective allocation of transboundary water resources: case of the Euphrates and Tigris. , 2010 .

[20]  A. Dinar,et al.  International Markets for Water and the Potential for Regional Cooperation: Economic and Political Perspectives in the Western Middle East , 1994, Economic Development and Cultural Change.

[21]  John G. Rowse,et al.  Market mechanisms and the efficient allocation of surface water resources in southern Alberta , 2002 .

[22]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Managing Water Resources: Methods and Tools for a Systems Approach , 2008 .

[23]  Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu.  Water resources allocation and conflicts: the case of the Euphrates and the Tigris , 2002 .

[24]  M. Arcari.  The draft articles on the law of international watercourses adopted by the International Law Commission: an overview and some remarks on selected issues , 1997 .

[25]  Ebrahim Mamdani,et al.  Applications of fuzzy algorithms for control of a simple dynamic plant , 1974 .

[26]  James P. Heaney,et al.  Methods for apportioning the cost of a water resource project , 1982 .

[27]  Diana C. Gibbons.  The Economic Value of Water , 1986 .

[28]  J. Guldmann,et al.  International Water Resources Allocation and Conflicts: The Case of the Euphrates and Tigris , 2002 .

[29]  Lucien Duckstein,et al.  Fuzzy Logic in Hydrology and Water Resources , 2004 .

[30]  H. Young,et al.  Cost allocation in water resources development , 1982 .

[31]  Doğan Altinbilek.  Development and management of the Euphrates–Tigris basin , 2004 .

[32]  P. Rogers.  A Game Theory Approach to the Problems of International River Basins , 1969 .

[33]  T. Ross.  Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications , 1994 .

[34]  J. Kolars.  Water Resources of the Middle East , 1992 .

[35]  A. Oppenheim,et al.  Ancient Mesopotamia: portrait of a dead civilization , 1964 .

[36]  I. Bogardi,et al.  Application of fuzzy rule-based modeling technique to regional drought , 1999 .

[37]  D. McKinney,et al.  'Preface to' Bridges Over Water: Understanding Transboundary Water Conflict, Negotiation and Cooperation , 2007 .

[38]  Richard E. Howitt,et al.  Managing Water Scarcity: An Evaluation of Interregional Transfers , 1984 .

[39]  D. Whittington,et al.  Incentive compatibility and conflict resolution in international river basins: A case study of the Nile Basin , 2006 .

[40]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Algorithms , 1968, Inf. Control..

[41]  Mehmet Özger,et al.  Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy logic approach , 2007 .

[42]  Janusz Kindler,et al.  Rationalizing Water Requirements with Aid of Fuzzy Allocation Model , 1992 .

[43]  J. Kolars.  Hydro-Geographic Background to the Utilization of International Rivers in the Middle East. , 1986, Proceedings of the ASIL Annual Meeting.

[44]  J. C. Flinn,et al.  An Application of Spatial Equilibrium Analysis to Water Resource Allocation , 1970 .

[45]  Rhoda Margesson.  Reducing conflict over the Danube waters: equitable utilization and sustainable development , 1997 .

[46]  A. Tanzi.  The completion of the preparatory work for the UN Convention on the Law of International Watercourses , 1997 .