Elevated plasma YKL-40 predicts increased risk of gastrointestinal cancer and decreased survival after any cancer diagnosis in the general population.

PURPOSE Elevated plasma YKL-40 is a biomarker of poor prognosis in cancer patients. We tested the hypotheses that elevated plasma YKL-40 predicts risk of cancer as well as survival after a cancer diagnosis in the general population. PATIENTS AND METHODS A prospective cohort study of 8,899 subjects (20 to 95 years) from the Danish general population, the Copenhagen City Heart Study, observed for 11 years for cancer incidence and 14 years for death: 1,432 participants had a first incident cancer, 968 of these died. Hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer events and death after events according to plasma YKL-40 in sex and 10 years age percentile categories: 0% to 33%, 34% to 66%, 67% to 90%, 91% to 95%, and 96% to 100%. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of gastrointestinal cancer increased with increasing YKL-40 (trend P < .0001). Multifactorially adjusted HRs for gastrointestinal cancer were 1.0 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.5) for YKL-40 in category 34% to 66%, 1.5 for 67% to 90% (95% CI, 1.0 to 2.3), 2.4 for 91% to 95%, (95% CI, 1.3 to 4.6), and 3.4 for 96% to 100% (95% CI, 1.9 to 6.1) versus YKL-40 category 0% to 33% (P < .0001). Participants with any cancer event and YKL-40 category 91% to 100% had a median survival time after the diagnosis of 1 year versus 4 years in participants with YKL-40 category 0% to 33% (P < .0001). Corresponding values for gastrointestinal cancer were 6 months versus 1 year (P = .007). Multifactorially adjusted HRs for early death were 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.5; P < .0001) after any cancer and 2.4 (95% CI, 1.3 to 4.3; P = .005) after gastrointestinal cancer in participants with YKL-40 category 91% to 100% versus 0% to 33%. CONCLUSION In the general population, elevated plasma YKL-40 predicts increased risk of gastrointestinal cancer and decreased survival after any cancer diagnosis.

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