A metapopulation approach to modelling the long-term impact of pesticides on invertebrates.

Two simulation models are presented which predict the impact of local and episodic applications of pesticide on the dynamics of invertebrate metapopulations. Both models assume that invertebrates disperse at particular rates over a matrix of fields and that each field experiences a specific pesticide regime. Model 1 investigates the population dynamics of a polyphagous predator which experiences direct mortality from pesticide exposure but is unaffected by the availability of the targeted pest. Model 2 investigates a similar system but also considers the dynamics of the pest, which is influenced both by predation and by pesticide exposure. Using stability diagrams and isocline portraits we characterize the likely long-term effects of factors such as the frequency and extent of spraying, factors which have hitherto not been widely considered in general pesticide models

[1]  Robert M. May,et al.  Population dynamics and biological control , 1988 .

[2]  R. Hughes,et al.  Natural Mortality of Erioischia brassicae (Bouche) (Diptera, Anthomyiidae) During the Immature Stages of the First Generation , 1959 .

[3]  H. Godfray,et al.  How insecticides trigger single-stage outbreaks in tropical pests , 1990 .

[4]  P. Jepson,et al.  The toxicity of aphicide residues to beneficial invertebrates in cereal crops , 1991 .

[5]  P. Jepson,et al.  Analysis of the spatial component of pesticide side effects on non-target invertebrate populations and its relevance to hazard analysis. , 1990 .

[6]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Metapopulation dynamics : empirical and theoretical investigations , 1991 .

[7]  H. Turin,et al.  Atlas of the Carabid Beetles of the Netherlands , 1977 .

[8]  T. H. Coaker.  Further experiments on the effect of beetle predators on the numbers of the cabbage root fly, Erioischia brassicae (Bouché), attacking brassica crops , 1965 .

[9]  P. J. Boer.  Dispersal power and survival. Carabids in a cultivated coutryside , 1977 .

[10]  S. Finch,et al.  Dispersal of the cabbage root fly , 1975 .

[11]  G. Frampton,et al.  Interactions between cereal pests and their predators and parasites. , 1992 .

[12]  T. H. Coaker.  The effect of soil insecticides on the predators and parasites of the cabbage root fly (Erioischia brassicae (Bouché)) and on the subsequent damage caused by the pest , 1966 .

[13]  Hugh J. Barclay,et al.  PREDATOR–PREY MODELS WITH ADDED MORTALITY , 1977, The Canadian Entomologist.

[14]  D. W. Wright,et al.  THE EFFECT OF CERTAIN PREDATORS ON THE NUMBERS OF CABBAGE ROOT FLY (ERIOISCHIA BRASSICAE (BOUCHÉ)) AND ON THE SUBSEQUENT DAMAGE CAUSED BY THE PEST , 1960 .

[15]  P. Giller,et al.  The Effect of Cereal and Grass Management on Staphylinid (Coleoptera) Assemblages in South-West Ireland , 1991 .

[16]  P. Jepson,et al.  Terrestrial non-target invertebrates and the autumn application of synthetic pyrethroids: Experimental methodology and the trade-off between replication and plot size , 1992 .

[17]  M. Hassell,et al.  [Cropping patterns of Bupleurum chinense in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau]. , 1985 .

[18]  X. Yao,et al.  [Quantitative relationships between leaf total nitrogen concentration and canopy reflectance spectra of rice]. , 1982, Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology.

[19]  G. B. Schaalje,et al.  Modelling insect populations affected by pesticides with application to pesticide efficacy trials , 1989 .

[20]  Andrew D. Taylor.  Metapopulations, Dispersal, and Predator‐Prey Dynamics: An Overview , 1990 .

[21]  J. Everts,et al.  Modelling the diffusion component of dispersal during recovery of a population of linyphiid spiders from exposure to an insecticide. , 1990 .

[22]  Michael P. Hassell,et al.  Spatial structure and chaos in insect population dynamics , 1991, Nature.

[23]  H. G. Andrewartha,et al.  The distribution and abundance of animals. , 1954 .

[24]  T. H. Coaker,et al.  THE IMPORTANCE OF SOME CARABIDAE AND STAPHYLINIDAE AS PREDATORS OF THE CABBAGE ROOT FLY, ERIOISCHIA BRASSICAE (BOUCHÉ) , 1963 .

[25]  T. Traas,et al.  The use of ecotoxicological risk assessment in deriving maximum acceptable half-lives of pesticides , 1992 .

[26]  S. Finch.  Ecological Considerations in the Management of Delia Pest Species in Vegetable Crops , 1989 .

[27]  R. Levins.  Some Demographic and Genetic Consequences of Environmental Heterogeneity for Biological Control , 1969 .