Ultra-short-term solar power forecasting based on a modified clear sky model

The ultra-short-term prediction of photovoltaic power system is of great significance to the safe operation of power system. However, the daily and annual periodicity of solar radiation brings strong non-stationary to the photovoltaic power series, which makes it difficult to predict the photovoltaic power series. In order to overcome the problem that the detailed clear sky model relies on a large number of plant parameters, this paper proposes a prediction algorithm based on a modified clear sky model. Firstly, historical data and geographical location of a certain site are utilized to build a modified clear sky model, then the theoretical clear sky power curve fitted by the modified clear sky model are divided by the actual historical power output to get a stabilized time series, finally the method of "online update" is adopted to forecast PV plant power output in the ultra-short-term time horizon (0-4 h). The test results of a photovoltaic power station in Ningxia show that the proposed model can reduce the prediction error of the 4th hour to about 3%.