Probabilistic verification and synthesis of the next generation airborne collision avoidance system

The next generation airborne collision avoidance system, ACAS X, departs from the traditional deterministic model on which the current system, TCAS, is based. To increase robustness, ACAS X relies on probabilistic models to represent the various sources of uncertainty. The work reported in this paper identifies verification challenges for ACAS X, and studies the applicability of probabilistic verification and synthesis techniques in addressing these challenges. Due to shortcomings of off-the-shelf probabilistic analysis tools, we developed a new framework, named VeriCA (Verification for Collision Avoidance). VeriCA is a combined probabilistic synthesis and verification framework that is custom designed for ACAS X and systems with similar characteristics. VeriCA supports Java as a modeling language, is memory efficient, employs parallelization, and provides an interactive simulator that displays aircraft encounters and the corresponding ACAS X behavior. We describe the application of our framework to ACAS X, together with the results and recommendations that our analysis produced.