Supply Chain Risk Management: Bullwhip Effect and Ripple Effect

Uncertainty is a system property characterizing the incompleteness of our knowledge about the system and the conditions of its development. Uncertainty is a polysemic term (poly – many, sema – a sign). Historically, the first terms related to uncertainty were accident, probability and possibility, which we relate to Aristotle. Up to the twentieth century, the mathematical basics of uncertainty factor description were founded on probability–frequency interpretation and are related to Pascal, Ferma, Bernoulli and Laplace. Modern probability theory is based on the research of Kolmogorov, who introduced an axiomatic definition of probability as a measure related to a system of axioms of a so-called probability space.