Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

The Delft Flood Early Warning System provides a versatile framework for real-time flood forecasting. The UK Environment Agency has adopted the Delft framework to deliver its National Flood Forecasting System. The Delft system incorporates new flood forecasting models very easily using an "open shell" framework. This paper describes how we added the data-based mechanistic modelling approach to the model inventory and presents a case study for the Eden catchment (Cumbria, UK).

[1]  J. R. Trapero,et al.  Recursive Estimation and Time-Series Analysis. An Introduction for the Student and Practitioner, Second edition, Peter C. Young. Springer (2011), 504 pp., Hardcover, $119.00, ISBN: 978-3-642-21980-1 , 2015 .

[2]  T. Başar,et al.  A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems , 2001 .

[3]  Keith Beven,et al.  Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts , 2012 .

[4]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Data assimilation and adaptive real-time forecasting of water levels in the river Eden catchment, UK. , 2009 .

[5]  Peter C Young,et al.  Advances in real–time flood forecasting , 2002, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[6]  Jaap Schellekens,et al.  The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[7]  K. Beven Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer , 2012 .

[8]  P. Young,et al.  Risk-based probabilistic fluvial flood forecasting for integrated catchment models - Phase 1 Report , 2009 .

[9]  Diego J. Pedregal,et al.  Environmental time series analysis and forecasting with the Captain toolbox , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[10]  Peter C. Young,et al.  Identification and Representation of State Dependent Non-linearities in Flood Forecasting Using the DBM Methodology , 2012 .

[11]  Keith Beven,et al.  A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cévennes region , 2011 .

[12]  R. Moore,et al.  Use of high‐resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north‐west England , 2009 .

[13]  Keith Beven,et al.  Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence , 2013 .

[14]  P. Young,et al.  Data assimilation and adaptive forecasting of water levels in the river Severn catchment, United Kingdom , 2006 .

[15]  Kevin Horsburgh,et al.  Data‐based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes: an example on the River Dee, UK , 2013 .

[16]  Chris Kilsby,et al.  Monitoring a flood event in a densely instrumented catchment, the Upper Eden, Cumbria, UK , 2006 .

[17]  J. S. Verkade,et al.  Estimation of Predictive Hydrological Uncertainty using Quantile Regression , 2010 .