Mangroves Response to Climate Change: A Review of Recent Findings on Mangrove Extension and Distribution.

Mangroves function as a natural coastline protection for erosion and inundation, providing important environmental services. Due to their geographical distribution at the continent-ocean interface, the mangrove habitat may suffer heavy impacts from global climate change, maximized by local human activities occurring in a given coastal region. This review analyzed the literature published over the last 25 years, on the documented response of mangroves to environmental change caused by global climate change, taking into consideration 104 case studies and predictive modeling, worldwide. Most studies appeared after the year 2000, as a response to the 1997 IPCC report. Although many reports showed that the world's mangrove area is decreasing due to direct anthropogenic pressure, several others, however, showed that in a variety of habitats mangroves are expanding as a response to global climate change. Worldwide, pole ward migration is extending the latitudinal limits of mangroves due to warmer winters and decreasing the frequency of extreme low temperatures, whereas in low-lying coastal plains, mangroves are migrating landward due to sea level rise, as demonstrated for the NE Brazilian coast. Taking into consideration climate change alone, mangroves in most areas will display a positive response. In some areas however, such as low-lying oceanic islands, such as in the Pacific and the Caribbean, and constrained coastlines, such as the SE Brazilian coast, mangroves will most probably not survive.

[1]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[2]  Kerrylee Rogers,et al.  Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits , 2014, Global change biology.

[3]  J. Ellison,et al.  Mangrove ecosystem collapse during predicted sea-level rise: Holocene analogues and implications , 1991 .

[4]  Jordan Graesser,et al.  A Mapping and Monitoring Assessment of the Philippines' Mangrove Forests from 1990 to 2010 , 2014 .

[5]  T. Bedin The progression of a mangrove forest over a newly formed delta in the Umhlatuze Estuary, South Africa , 2001 .

[6]  E. Medina,et al.  Natural and man-induced changes in a tidal channel mangrove system under tropical semiarid climate at the entrance of the Maracaibo lake (Western Venezuela) , 2001, Wetlands Ecology and Management.

[7]  K. McKee Global Change Impacts on Mangrove Ecosystems , 2004 .

[8]  J. Minx,et al.  Climate Change 2014 : Synthesis Report , 2014 .

[9]  M. Soares,et al.  Southern limit of the Western South Atlantic mangroves: Assessment of the potential effects of global warming from a biogeographical perspective , 2012 .

[10]  R. Marins,et al.  Pluriannual watershed discharges of hg into a tropical semi-arid estuary of the Jaguaribe river, NE Brazil , 2013 .

[11]  C. Woodroffe Mangrove Sediments and Geomorphology , 2013 .

[12]  I. Mendelssohn,et al.  Acute salt marsh dieback in the Mississippi River deltaic plain: a drought‐induced phenomenon? , 2004 .

[13]  Neil Saintilan,et al.  How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level. , 2014, The New phytologist.

[14]  W. Ekau,et al.  The coast and shelf of east and northeast Brazil and material transport , 1999 .

[15]  Greg Law,et al.  The Prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Infections in Papua New Guinea: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis , 2010, PloS one.

[16]  C. D. Field,et al.  Impact of expected climate change on mangroves , 1995 .

[17]  J. B. Adams,et al.  The distribution and state of mangroves along the coast of Transkei, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa , 2004, Wetlands Ecology and Management.

[18]  A. Cazenave,et al.  Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones , 2010, Science.

[19]  E. Gilman,et al.  Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review , 2008 .

[20]  Quan Hua,et al.  Mangrove Forest and Soil Development on a Rapidly Accreting Shore in New Zealand , 2010, Ecosystems.

[21]  John C. Field,et al.  Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems , 2002 .

[22]  Mark Spalding,et al.  World Atlas of Mangroves , 2010 .

[23]  Chandra Giri,et al.  Mangrove forest distributions and dynamics (1975–2005) of the tsunami‐affected region of Asia † , 2008 .

[24]  R. Herz Manguezais do Brasil , 1991 .

[25]  A. Ellison,et al.  A World Without Mangroves? , 2007, Science.

[26]  D. Alongi Mangrove forests: Resilience, protection from tsunamis, and responses to global climate change , 2008 .

[27]  I. Mendelssohn,et al.  Ecosystem effects of expanding populations of Avicennia germinans in a Louisiana salt marsh , 2009, Wetlands.

[28]  Ashbindu Singh,et al.  Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data , 2011 .

[29]  J. Sah,et al.  The Southeast Saline Everglades revisited: 50 years of coastal vegetation change. , 2000 .

[30]  William H. Conner,et al.  Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise , 2010 .

[31]  Pedro Walfir Martins e Souza Filho,et al.  Costa de manguezais de macromaré da Amazônia: cenários morfológicos, mapeamento e quantificação de áreas usando dados de sensores remotos , 2005 .

[32]  G. Maul,et al.  Sea level rise at Key West, Florida, 1846‐1992: America's longest instrument record? , 1993 .

[33]  D. Cahoon,et al.  Differential rates of vertical accretion and elevation change among aerial root types in Micronesian mangrove forests , 2003 .

[34]  F. Pattyn,et al.  Mangroves facing climate change: landward migration potential in response to projected scenarios of sea level rise , 2013 .

[35]  Taotao Qian,et al.  Changes in Continental Freshwater Discharge from 1948 to 2004 , 2009 .

[36]  H. Behling,et al.  Model of wetland development of the Amapá coast during the late Holocene , 2010 .

[37]  John W. Jones,et al.  Dynamics of Mangrove-Marsh Ecotones in Subtropical Coastal Wetlands: Fire, Sea-Level Rise, and Water Levels , 2013 .

[38]  Bruce W. Pengra,et al.  Monitoring mangrove forest dynamics of the Sundarbans in Bangladesh and India using multi-temporal satellite data from 1973 to 2000 , 2007 .

[39]  J. Adams,et al.  Disentangling the effects of global climate and regional land-use change on the current and future distribution of mangroves in South Africa , 2013, Biodiversity and Conservation.

[40]  Philip Shearman,et al.  Trends in Deltaic Change over Three Decades in the Asia-Pacific Region , 2013 .

[41]  C. Field Impact of expected climate change on mangroves , 2004, Hydrobiologia.

[42]  S. L. Fox,et al.  The interplay between mangroves and saltmarshes at the transition between temperate and subtropical climate in Florida , 2006, Wetlands Ecology and Management.

[43]  H. Behling,et al.  Late Holocene mangrove dynamics of Marajó Island in Amazonia, northern Brazil , 2004 .

[44]  Y. Schaeffer-Novelli,et al.  Chapter Nine Mangroves as indicators of sea level change in the muddy coasts of the world , 2002 .

[45]  M. M. Molisani,et al.  Changes in mangrove extension at the Pacoti River estuary, CE, NE Brazil due to regional environmental changes between 1958 and 2004 , 2007 .

[46]  M. Lawes,et al.  The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points , 2011 .

[47]  Lara Rubén,et al.  Implications of mangrove dynamics for private and use in bragança, north Brazil: a case study , 2002 .

[48]  Louis S. Santiago,et al.  Oceanographic anomalies and sea-level rise drive mangroves inland in the Pacific coast of Mexico , 2011 .

[49]  T. Healy,et al.  Expansion Dynamics of Monospecific, Temperate Mangroves and Sedimentation in Two Embayments of a Barrier-Enclosed Lagoon, Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand , 2010 .

[50]  Margareth da Silva Copertino Add coastal vegetation to the climate critical list , 2011, Nature.

[51]  R. Taylor,et al.  Historic and recent (2006) state of mangroves in small estuaries from Mlalazi to Mtamvuna in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa , 2009 .

[52]  Hai H. Nguyen The relation of coastal mangrove changes and adjacent land-use: a review in Southeast Asia and Kien Giang, Vietnam , 2014 .

[53]  Analysis of mangrove forest succession, using sediment cores: a case study in the Cananéia -Iguape coastal system, São Paulo Brazil , 2009 .

[54]  D. Gruner,et al.  Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[55]  D. Cahoon,et al.  Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation , 2007 .

[56]  H. Behling,et al.  Studies on Holocene mangrove ecosystem dynamics of the Bragança Peninsula in north-eastern Pará, Brazil , 2001 .

[57]  O. Barth,et al.  Paleoenvironment interpretation of a 1760 years B.P. old sediment in a mangrove area of the Bay of Guanabara, using pollen analysis. , 2006, Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias.

[58]  Nico Koedam,et al.  Anthropogenic activities on mangrove areas (são francisco river estuary, brazil northeast): A gis-based analysis of cbers and spot images to aid in local management , 2014 .

[59]  M. G. Tessler,et al.  Erosional and depositional processes on the Southern coast of the State of São Paulo: a case study of Cananéia-Iguape system , 1998 .

[60]  E. Green,et al.  Mangroves of East Africa , 2003 .

[61]  R. Lucas,et al.  Mapping changes in the largest continuous Amazonian mangrove belt using object-based classification of multisensor satellite imagery , 2013 .

[62]  Severino G. Salmo,et al.  The Loss of Species: Mangrove Extinction Risk and Geographic Areas of Global Concern , 2010, PloS one.

[63]  Changes in Mangrove Habitat in Baja California Sur from 1986 to 2001 Executive Summary , 2008 .

[64]  D. Rossetti,et al.  Late Quaternary landscape evolution of northeastern Amazonia from pollen and diatom records. , 2013, Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias.

[65]  S. Breckle,et al.  Reasons for the limitation of mangrove along the west coast of northern Peru , 2004, Vegetatio.

[66]  Grant J. Williamson,et al.  Late 20th century mangrove encroachment in the coastal Australian monsoon tropics parallels the regional increase in woody biomass , 2011 .

[67]  D. Cahoon,et al.  Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change , 2015 .

[68]  Daniel M. Alongi,et al.  The Impact of Climate Change on Mangrove Forests , 2015, Current Climate Change Reports.

[69]  P. Shearman Recent Change in the Extent of Mangroves in the Northern Gulf of Papua, Papua New Guinea , 2010, AMBIO.

[70]  Eric Gilman,et al.  Assessment of Mangrove Response to Projected Relative Sea-Level Rise And Recent Historical Reconstruction of Shoreline Position , 2007, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[71]  C. Lovelock,et al.  Mangrove growth in New Zealand estuaries: the role of nutrient enrichment at sites with contrasting rates of sedimentation , 2007, Oecologia.

[72]  S. Snedaker,et al.  Discussion of Ellison, Joanna C. and Stoddart, David R., 1991. Mangrove ecosystem collapse during predicted sea-level rise: Holocene analogues and implications. Journal of Coastal Research, 7(1), 151-165. , 1994 .

[73]  R. Moss,et al.  The regional impacts of climate change : an assessment of vulnerability , 1997 .

[74]  V. S. Quaresma,et al.  Mid- to Late-Holocene estuarine infilling processes studied by radiocarbon dates, high resolution seismic and biofacies at Vitoria Bay, Espirito Santo, Southeastern Brazil , 2010 .

[75]  M. Bush,et al.  A Holocene pollen record of savanna establishment in coastal Amapá. , 2008, Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias.

[76]  T. Steinke,et al.  A note on the distribution and approximate areas of mangroves in South Africa , 1982 .

[77]  Keqi Zhang,et al.  Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems , 2009 .

[78]  Joanna C. Ellison,et al.  Pacific Island mangroves in a changing climate and rising sea , 2006 .

[79]  I. Valiela,et al.  Mangrove Forests: One of the World's Threatened Major Tropical Environments , 2001 .

[80]  J. Watson,et al.  Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate: A Review of Threats and Implications for Conservation Planning in Myanmar , 2013, AMBIO.

[81]  Neil Sipe,et al.  Mangrove expansion and rainfall patterns in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, Australia. , 2009 .

[82]  L. D. Lacerda,et al.  Continental shelf water masses off the Jaguaribe River (4S), northeastern Brazil , 2013 .

[83]  Abhijit Mitra,et al.  Climate change impacts on Indian Sunderbans: a time series analysis (1924–2008) , 2012, Biodiversity and Conservation.

[84]  M. Bush,et al.  Vegetation and hydrology changes in Eastern Amazonia inferred from a pollen record. , 2008, Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias.

[85]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .