Using System Dynamics for Grand Challenges: The ESDMA Approach

In this paper, we argue and show how system dynamics modelling can be combined with exploratory modelling and analysis in order to address grand societal challenges, which are almost without exception characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. Addressing such issues requires the systematic exploration of different hypotheses related to model formulation and model parametrization and their effect on the kinds of behavioral dynamics that can occur. Through two cases, we illustrate the combination of system dynamics and exploratory modelling. The first case illustrates its use for discovering different types of dynamics related to metal and mineral scarcity. The second case illustrates its use for worst-case discovery in water scarcity. We conclude that exploratory system dynamics modelling represents a promising approach for addressing deeply uncertain dynamically complex societal challenges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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