A fuzzy decision system for unit commitment risk analysis

In this paper, a possibilistic approach has been applied in analyzing the effect of load uncertainties on unit commitment risk analysis rather than the probabilistic approach using the usual Markov model. The risk analysis, which is the analysis of the risk of having insufficient committed capacity to compensate for unit failures and/or load variations, plays an important role in running an electric utility economically. Key factors such as load demand and reserve margin are treated as fuzzy variables. A fuzzy decision system has been developed to determine the risk associated with a given load curve and also to select the units to be on or off based on fuzzy variables.