Application of the SSMRP methodology to the seismic risk at the Zion Nuclear Power Plant

The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) has the goal of developing a fully coupled analysis procedure for estimating the risk of an earthquake-induced radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant. The risk analysis included a detailed seismological evaluation of the region around Zion, Illinois, which provided the earthquake-hazard function and a randomized set of 180 time histories (having peak ground acceleration values up to 1.8 g). These time histories were used as input for dynamic structural response calculations for four different Zion buildings. Detailed finite-element models of the buildings were used. Calculated time histories at piping support points were then used to determine moments throughout critical piping systems. Twenty separate piping models were analyzed. Finally, the responses of piping and safety system components within the buildings were combined with probabilistic failure criteria and event-tree/fault-tree models of the plant safety systems to produce an estimate of the frequency of core melt and radioactive release due to earthquakes.

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