Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

Complex interactions manifest between modes of tropical climate variability across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. For example, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extends its influence on modes of variability in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which in turn feed back onto ENSO. Interactions between pairs of modes can alter their strength, periodicity, seasonality, and ultimately their predictability, yet little is known about the role that a third mode plays. Here we examine the interactions and relative influences between pairs of climate modes using ensembles of 100-year partially coupled experiments in an otherwise fully coupled general circulation model. In these experiments, the air–sea interaction over each tropical ocean basin, as well as pairs of ocean basins, is suppressed in turn. We find that Indian Ocean variability has a net damping effect on ENSO and Atlantic Ocean variability, and conversely they each promote Indian Ocean variability. The connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic is most clearly revealed in the absence of Indian Ocean variability. Our model runs suggest a weak damping influence by Atlantic variability on ENSO, and an enhancing influence by ENSO on Atlantic variability.

[1]  C. Mechoso,et al.  The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings , 2016 .

[2]  Stephen E. Zebiak.  Air–Sea Interaction in the Equatorial Atlantic Region , 1993 .

[3]  J. S. Godfrey,et al.  A 20-Yr Average of the Indonesian Throughflow: Regional Currents and the Interbasin Exchange , 2008 .

[4]  S. Phipps.  Technical Report: the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model v1.2 , 2010 .

[5]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[6]  F. Chauvin,et al.  Tropical response to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: AGCM multimodel approach , 2010 .

[7]  M. England,et al.  On the Interannual Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow and Its Linkage with ENSO , 2005 .

[8]  M. Latif,et al.  On Dipolelike Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Indian Ocean , 2002 .

[9]  M. Latif,et al.  Impacts of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans on ENSO , 2006 .

[10]  N. Lau,et al.  The Role of the “Atmospheric Bridge” in Linking Tropical Pacific ENSO Events to Extratropical SST Anomalies , 1996 .

[11]  M. England,et al.  The Role of the Indonesian Throughflow on ENSO Dynamics in a Coupled Climate Model , 2011 .

[12]  M. Latif,et al.  Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction , 2012 .

[13]  A. Gordon.  Oceanography of the Indonesian Seas and Their Throughflow , 2005 .

[14]  F. Molteni,et al.  Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability , 2008 .

[15]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  On the Inconsistent Relationship between Pacific and Atlantic Niños , 2012 .

[16]  M. Latif,et al.  Understanding Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability , 2007 .

[17]  J. Potemra.  Seasonal Variations of Upper Ocean Transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean via Indonesian Straits , 1999 .

[18]  R. Saravanan,et al.  Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño–Southern Oscillation , 2000 .

[19]  N. Lau,et al.  Atmosphere–Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes , 2003 .

[20]  Yue Fang,et al.  The cause of the fragile relationship between the Pacific El Niño and the Atlantic Niño , 2006, Nature.

[21]  Y. Masumoto,et al.  Equatorial Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5 , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[22]  Y. Masumoto,et al.  Impact of the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[23]  Steven J. Phipps,et al.  Paleoclimate Data–Model Comparison and the Role of Climate Forcings over the Past 1500 Years* , 2013 .

[24]  A. Groe.  The equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO , 2022 .

[25]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  UNDERSTANDING EL NINO IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS : Progress and Challenges , 2008 .

[26]  N. Keenlyside,et al.  Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in a Conceptual Framework , 2009 .

[27]  G. Meehl,et al.  How sensitive are the Pacific–tropical North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming? , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[28]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  A CGCM Study on the Interaction between IOD and ENSO , 2006 .

[29]  Yan Du,et al.  Role of Air-Sea Interaction in the Long Persistence of El Nino-Induced North Indian Ocean Warming* , 2009 .

[30]  G. Vecchi,et al.  The Role of the Indonesian Throughflow in the Indo–Pacific Climate Variability in the GFDL Coupled Climate Model , 2007 .

[31]  John R. Lanzante,et al.  The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans , 2002 .

[32]  W. Cai,et al.  Why is the amplitude of the Indian Ocean Dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models? , 2013 .

[33]  G. Meyers.  Variation of Indonesian throughflow and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation , 1996 .

[34]  Xia Zhao,et al.  Interannual Climate Variability over the Tropical Pacific Ocean Induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole through the Indonesian Throughflow , 2013 .

[35]  Matthieu Lengaigne,et al.  Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño , 2010 .

[36]  A. Arakawa,et al.  Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO cycle , 2002 .

[37]  Mojib Latif,et al.  Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Ocean interactions at multi‐decadal time scales , 2001 .

[38]  Y. Masumoto,et al.  Interaction between El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean dipole. , 2010 .

[39]  Impact of Indo-Pacific Feedback Interactions on ENSO Dynamics Diagnosed Using Ensemble Climate Simulations , 2012 .

[40]  Eric Guilyardi,et al.  Two Independent Triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a Coupled GCM , 2005 .

[41]  M. England,et al.  Genesis of Indian Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Anomalies: A Heat Budget Analysis , 2010 .

[42]  R. Haarsma,et al.  The Impacts of Inter–El Niño Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate , 2011 .

[43]  J. Sprintall,et al.  The Indonesian Throughflow response to Indo‐Pacific climate variability , 2014 .

[44]  Jong-Seong Kug,et al.  Interactive Feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean , 2006 .

[45]  H. Annamalai,et al.  Impact of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on Developing El Niño , 2005 .

[46]  C. Mechoso,et al.  Processes in the Pacific La Niña onset triggered by the Atlantic Niño , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[47]  M. Watanabe,et al.  Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of Philippine Sea anticyclone during ENSO , 2002 .

[48]  D. Battisti,et al.  The Basic Effects of Atmosphere–Ocean Thermal Coupling on Midlatitude Variability* , 1998 .

[49]  James T. Potemra,et al.  Coupled dynamics over the Indian Ocean: spring initiation of the Zonal Mode , 2003 .

[50]  D. Dommenget,et al.  Influences of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans on the predictability of ENSO , 2012 .

[51]  J. S. Godfrey,et al.  Water-mass formation and Sverdrup dynamics; a comparison between climatology and a coupled ocean-atmosphere model , 1992 .

[52]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming , 2014 .

[53]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study , 2005 .

[54]  S. Masson,et al.  Impacts of Indian and Atlantic oceans on ENSO in a comprehensive modeling framework , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[55]  Bin Wang,et al.  Roles of the Western North Pacific Wind Variation in Thermocline Adjustment and ENSO Phase Transition , 1999 .

[56]  S. Masson,et al.  Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections? , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[57]  J. Sprintall,et al.  Pacific‐to‐Indian Ocean connectivity: Tasman leakage, Indonesian Throughflow, and the role of ENSO , 2014 .

[58]  M. England,et al.  Indo-Pacific Climate Interactions in the Absence of an Indonesian Throughflow , 2015 .

[59]  Ngar-Cheung Lau,et al.  Remote Sea Surface Temperature Variations during ENSO: Evidence for a Tropical Atmospheric Bridge , 1999 .

[60]  Robert H. Weisberg,et al.  Western Pacific Interannual Variability Associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation , 1999 .

[61]  A. Gordon,et al.  The heat transport of the Indonesian Throughflow and implications for the Indian Ocean heat budget , 2002 .

[62]  M. Latif,et al.  Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[63]  R. Wu,et al.  Understanding the Impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO Variability in a Coupled GCM , 2004 .

[64]  F. Kucharski,et al.  Tropical Atlantic influence on Pacific variability and mean state in the twentieth century in observations and CMIP5 , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[65]  B. Rodríguez‐Fonseca,et al.  On the Atlantic–Pacific Niños connection: a multidecadal modulated mode , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[66]  Carlos R. Mechoso,et al.  Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? , 2009 .