Landscape scenario modelling of vegetation condition

Summary  Landscape scenario modelling is a useful aid to planning for biodiversity conservation. Vegetation condition modelling is increasingly being integrated into such analysis. Model complexity and model uncertainty are critical factors that must be addressed when tailoring vegetation condition modelling to individual applications. We describe three approaches that we have used to compare the effects of different landscape scenarios on vegetation condition. The first is a simple land-use–condition approach where vegetation condition is determined solely by land use. The second is a land-use–regeneration approach that introduces transition functions to model vegetation condition dynamics associated with land use change. The third is a threat–regeneration approach, which models vegetation condition dynamics based on the interaction between regeneration and a range of mapped threats. The three approaches represent a progression towards increased refinement and realism, but also increased complexity and data requirements. We examine the relative usefulness of the three approaches and conclude that there is no single ‘silver bullet’ solution but recommend judicious matching of approaches to applications within a collaborative and adaptive setting.