Model-Based U.S. Prison Population Projections

Prison population totals at state institutions have varied greatly over the past 35 years. After growing slowly but steadily during the 1950s, the inmate population was fairly stable during the 1960s and early 1970s (Figure 1). From the mid-1970s to the present, however, the number of prisoners has grown at an unprecedented rate. Over the past 10 years, the state prison population has doubled; as of mid-1984, 420,000 people were incarcerated by states. Given what has happened in the past decade, it is not surprising that most state prisons are operating beyond their capacities. State officials have responded in various ways to this unstable and dangerous situation. In the short run, they have adopted such patently unpopular measures as the mass release of prisoners; for the longer run, they have undertaken massive prison expansion. The American Correctional Association reports that, as of mid-1983, 200 new correction-related buildings were under construction in the United States. In all, 80,000 new beds are to be available by 1990.' Recently, however, some noteworthy developments have occurred. In 1984 the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reported that for the second year in a row the number of serious crimes reported to law enforcement authorities decreased. Moreover, the mid-1984 government prison census report showed that the rate of increase in prison populations "appeared to be slowing."2 Some officials have begun to express hope that the aging of the post-World War II baby boom, the deterrent effects from tougher sentencing policies, and the incapacitation effects of higher incarceration rates will reduce crime rates and ultimately solve the prison population and overcrowding problems. But this circumstance raises a crucial policy-related question: if it is true that the United States has turned the corner on