论文信息 - Performance Analysis of the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System

Performance Analysis of the HURRAN Tropical Cyclone Forecast System

Abstract The HURRAN (hurricane analog) technique, a fully computerized objective forecast aid making use of past tracks in forecasting hurricane motion, was developed prior to the 1969 hurricane season. Encouraging operational results during the 1969 and 1970 hurricane seasons suggested further evaluation of the technique. To this end, HURRAN computations were made for approximately 1,000 forecast situations. Results are stratified according to initial direction and speed of movement of the sample storms and the number of analogs selected. The utility of the technique is discussed, and the importance of position accuracy at forecast time is demonstrated. Initial indications of the value of the technique are substantiated.

C. J. Neumann | Charles J. Neumann | John R. Hope | J. R. Hope

[1] B. M. Lewis,et al. AN EIGHT-YEAR EXPERIMENT IN IMPROVING FORECASTS OF HURRICANE MOTION , 1968 .

[2] D. Hoaglin,et al. Bivariate normal offset circle, probability tables with offset ellipse transformations , 1967 .

[3] H. Riehl,et al. ON THE PREDICTION OF 24-HOUR HURRICANE MOTION , 1956 .

[4] Jack D. Tracy. ACCURACY OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS , 1966 .

[5] F. C. Mills,et al. Statistical Methods , 1973 .

[6] Robert H. Simpson,et al. The decision process in hurricane forecasting , 1971 .

[7] B. I. Miller,et al. Prediction of Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods , 1966 .

[8] E. Hill,et al. A REVISED TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING HURRICANE MOVEMENT BY STATISTICAL METHODS , 1968 .

[9] C. J. Neumann,et al. AN OPERATIONAL TECHNIQUE FOR RELATING THE MOVEMENT OF EXISTING TROPICAL CYCLONES TO PAST TRACKS1 , 1970 .

[10] P. L. Moore,et al. A Comparison of Hurricane Steering Levels , 1960 .