Modelling Transitions in Consumer Lighting: Consequences of the E.U. ban on light bulbs

Consumers largely use outdated and inefficient lighting technology. If 40% of the electricity consumed in residential lighting could be saved, a 320 MW power plant could be taken off the grid. The European Union has acknowledged this problem. Its `ban on bulbs'--regulation tries to force consumers to switch to more efficient lighting (such as the compact fluorescent lamp or the LED lamp). However, we would like to know whether the ban will be effective. Are there other policy measures, perhaps more transition-oriented, that are also effective? This research aims to create insights into the ill-understood dynamics in the complex system of consumer lighting. The main research question is "How can we explore the consequences the E.U.\ ban on bulbs will have on the electricity demand of the consumer lighting sector?" A socio-technical systems perspective is applied to the system, with insights from innovation diffusion theory, and marketing science. The consumer lighting sector is a complex socio-technical system. Consumers mutually influence each other through word-of-mouth and normative adaptation, but they are also subject to influences of manufacturers, stores, government and technological options. The dynamics of the consumer lighting sector cannot be understood in advance, which necessitates a social simulations approach for assessing the consequences of the ban on bulbs, as well as from a number of different policy option. An agent-based model is developed in which consumers are simulated in their behaviour (purchase, sharing of information). Consumers are modelled based on heterogeneous preferences and have memory and perceptions. The results indicate that the ban on bulbs will be effective in realising an energy efficient sector, albeit at significant expense to consumers. Interesting so, a tax (of 2 euro) on incandescent light bulbs is also effective given that it is high enough. A full summary of the research is included in pages v-vii of the thesis.

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