An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30 per cent decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximately five per cent. The accumulated annual benefit to farmers in the Merredin region (an area with 754 farm holdings over 35, 500 square kilometres of land) is approximately two million dollars. Hence, support is given for the development of seasonal forecasting techniques in Western Australia.

[1]  Bruce L. Dixon,et al.  Valuing the lead time of periodic forecasts in dynamic production systems , 1993 .

[2]  H. Meinke,et al.  Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases : an example for the Australian peanut industry , 1997 .

[3]  T. Gillespie,et al.  Estimating the Value of Precipitation Forecast Information in Alfalfa Dry Hay Production in Ontario , 1999 .

[4]  Allen M. Featherstone,et al.  Dynamic Marketing and Retention Decisions for Cow-Calf Producers , 1990 .

[5]  Sushil Pandey,et al.  Farm Planning under Uncertainty: A Review of Alternative Programming Models , 1991 .

[6]  Steven T. Sonka,et al.  Using hierarchical systems aggregation to model the value of information in agricultural systems: An application for climate forecast information , 1992 .

[7]  Peter B. R. Hazell,et al.  Mathematical Programming for Economic Analysis in Agriculture. , 1987 .

[8]  J. Antle.  Incorporating Risk in Production Analysis , 1983 .

[9]  ARE FUNGICIDES, NITROGEN AND PLANT GROWTH REGULATORS RISK-REDUCING? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SWISS WHEAT PRODUCTION , 1997 .

[10]  Steven T. Sonka,et al.  Valuing Forecast Characteristics in a Dynamic Agricultural Production System , 1988 .

[11]  James W. Mjelde,et al.  Obtaining Lower and Upper Bounds on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts as a Function of Risk Preferences , 1988 .

[12]  N. Nicholls,et al.  Forecasting wheat yields in Australia with the Southern Oscillation Index , 1993 .

[13]  T. Stoneman.  An introduction to the soils of the Merredin advisory district , 1992 .

[14]  Jock R. Anderson,et al.  Risk, utility and the value of information in farmer decision making , 1982 .

[15]  T. Gillespie,et al.  The value of precipitation forecast information in winter wheat production , 1999 .

[16]  D. Newbery,et al.  The theory of commodity price stabilization , 1981 .

[17]  David J. Pannell,et al.  Lessons from a Decade of Whole-Farm Modelling in Western Australia , 1996 .

[18]  W. Foulds,et al.  Effect of frosting, moisture stress and potassium cyanide on the metabolism of cyanogenic and acyanogenic phenotypes of Lotus corniculatus L. and Trifolium repens L. , 1977, Heredity.

[19]  Andrew Dorward.  Farm planning with resource uncertainty: a semi-sequential approach , 1994 .

[20]  D. Holzworth,et al.  The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability , 1996 .

[21]  M. Cane,et al.  Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño on Pleiades visibility , 2000, Nature.

[22]  G. Marshall,et al.  Risk Attitude, Planting Conditions and the Value of Seasonal Forecasts to a Dryland Wheat Grower , 1996 .

[23]  J. Davidson,et al.  Responses of a standard Australian and a Mexican wheat to temperature and water stress , 1978 .