Carbon dioxide mitigation target of China in 2020 and key economic sectors

China proposed a CO2 mitigation target in 2020 to deal with anthropogenic global climate change. Chinese policy makers mainly focus on three factors comprising consumption structure changes, energy technology development, and new energy increments. In addition, sectoral CO2 reduction is increasingly concerned in the world. Thus, it is significant to investigate integrated impacts of three factors to China's CO2 mitigation target as well as to identify key economic sectors for achieving this target. In this study, energy demand and CO2 emission in 2020 are predicted. Five scenarios are generated to illustrate the contributions of three factors. In addition, twelve key economic sectors for reducing energy demand and CO2 emission are identified from both production and final demand perspectives. Under integrated impacts of three factors, China's CO2 intensity per unit gross domestic product in 2020 will decrease by about 43.9% in 2020 than 2005 level. In the short term, China's CO2 mitigation will be highly dependent on energy technology development. In the long term, it will mainly rely on reshaped consumption structure changes and new energy development. In addition, China's future policies should focus on 12 identified key economic sectors.

[1]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input-output model: A case of Suzhou in China. , 2012, Waste management.

[2]  Ming Zhang,et al.  Accounting for energy-related CO2 emission in China, 1991-2006 , 2009 .

[3]  S. Dhakal.  Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications , 2009 .

[4]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Sustainable urban materials management for air pollutants mitigation based on urban physical input–output model , 2012 .

[5]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Unintended consequences of bioethanol feedstock choice in China. , 2012, Bioresource technology.

[6]  Gregg Marland,et al.  China: Emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production , 2008 .

[7]  Yong Geng,et al.  Features, trajectories and driving forces for energy-related GHG emissions from Chinese mega cites: The case of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing , 2012 .

[8]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Interactions of energy technology development and new energy exploitation with water technology development in China , 2011 .

[9]  Chen Changhong,et al.  The CO2 emission reduction benefits of Chinese energy policies and environmental policies:: A case study for Shanghai, period 1995-2020 , 2001 .

[10]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Comparisons of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry based on physical input-output life-cycle assessment model. , 2012, Waste management.

[11]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Life cycle assessment of biodiesel production in China. , 2013, Bioresource technology.

[12]  Yongchen Song,et al.  Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China , 2009 .

[13]  N. H. Ravindranath,et al.  2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories , 2006 .

[14]  Dabo Guan,et al.  DISAGGREGATING INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION , 2012 .

[15]  ZhongXiang Zhang,et al.  Decoupling China’s Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications , 2000 .

[16]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Integrating sustainable chain management with triple bottom line accounting , 2005 .

[17]  Wen Liu,et al.  The Potential of Renewable Energy Systems in China , 2009 .

[18]  Sai Liang,et al.  Investigating Reasons for Differences in the Results of Environmental, Physical, and Hybrid Input‐Output Models , 2013 .

[19]  Xingping Zhang,et al.  Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China , 2009 .

[20]  Sai Liang,et al.  What is driving CO2 emissions in a typical manufacturing center of South China? The case of Jiangsu Province , 2011 .

[21]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Waste oil derived biofuels in China bring brightness for global GHG mitigation. , 2013, Bioresource technology.

[22]  S Pacala,et al.  Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies , 2004, Science.

[23]  Frederick W. Allen,et al.  Using Material Flow Analysis for Sustainable Materials Management , 2009 .

[24]  Ching-Chih Chang.  A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China , 2010 .

[25]  M. McElroy,et al.  Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China , 2009, Science.

[26]  K. Hubacek,et al.  Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis , 2009 .

[27]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980-2003 , 2007 .

[28]  Jining Chen,et al.  Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission in China: 1957–2000 , 2005 .

[29]  Tianzhu Zhang,et al.  Clustering economic sectors in China on a life cycle basis to achieve environmental sustainability , 2013, Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering.

[30]  Helga Weisz,et al.  Physical and monetary input-output analysis: What makes the difference? , 2006 .

[31]  C. Weber,et al.  China's growing CO2 emissions--a race between increasing consumption and efficiency gains. , 2007, Environmental science & technology.

[32]  Youguo Zhang,et al.  Structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in China; 1992-2006 , 2009 .

[33]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  Multi-regional input-output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China , 2007 .