EPIRUS: An integrated 'clouds-to-coast' ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk

In the UK coastal flood defences are usually designed to withstand extreme events with a return period of between 50 to 200 years, taking account of sea level rise. Currently, there is a lack of a robust and integrated ’cloud-to-coast’ framework for assessing coastal flood risk. The interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and coasts are poorly understood. There are large uncertainties in the performance of sea defences and predictions of coastal flood risk in extreme conditions. The project: ―Ensemble Prediction of Inundation Risk and Uncertainty arising from Scour (EPIRUS)‖ funded by NERC brings together a team of hydro-meteorologists, oceanographers and coastal engineers to address this issue (Zou et al. 2008, 2009).