Post-disposal orbital evolution of satellites and upper stages used by the GPS and GLONASS navigation constellations: The long-term impact on the Medium Earth Orbit environment

Abstract The long-term evolution and environmental impact in MEO of all the abandoned spacecraft and upper stages associated with the GPS and GLONASS navigation constellations were analyzed. The orbits of the disposed objects, as of 1 May 2011, were propagated for 200 years and snapshots of their evolving distribution were obtained, together with an estimation of the changing collision probability with the spacecraft of the operational navigation systems existing or planned in MEO, i.e., GLONASS, GPS, Beidou and Galileo. The probability that the abandoned objects considered will collide with the operational spacecraft of the navigation constellations is very low, even taking into account the intrinsic eccentricity instability of the disposal orbits. Assuming the present or envisaged configuration of the constellations in MEO, the probability of collision, integrated over 200 years, would be