Verification of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts
暂无分享,去创建一个
[1] John Boland,et al. Nonparametric short-term probabilistic forecasting for solar radiation , 2016 .
[2] Dazhi Yang,et al. A universal benchmarking method for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting , 2019, Solar Energy.
[3] J. Kleissl,et al. Chapter 8 – Overview of Solar-Forecasting Methods and a Metric for Accuracy Evaluation , 2013 .
[4] John Boland,et al. Forecasting solar radiation on an hourly time scale using a Coupled AutoRegressive and Dynamical System (CARDS) model , 2013 .
[5] R. Koenker,et al. Regression Quantiles , 2007 .
[6] Henrik Madsen,et al. Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind speed using stochastic differential equations , 2016 .
[7] Hadrien Verbois,et al. Probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead solar irradiance using quantile gradient boosting , 2018, Solar Energy.
[8] mith,et al. Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory , 2002 .
[9] Nick van de Giesen,et al. Kullback–Leibler Divergence as a Forecast Skill Score with Classic Reliability–Resolution–Uncertainty Decomposition , 2010 .
[10] I. Jolliffe,et al. Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science , 2011 .
[11] Mathieu David,et al. Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models , 2017 .
[12] Leonard A. Smith,et al. Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper , 2007 .
[13] Gilles Notton,et al. Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies , 2017 .
[14] Tao Zhang,et al. Interval prediction of solar power using an Improved Bootstrap method , 2018 .
[15] Petra Friederichs,et al. Decomposition and graphical portrayal of the quantile score , 2014 .
[16] Robert P. Broadwater,et al. Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting , 2014 .
[17] R. L. Winkler. A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Interval Estimation , 1972 .
[18] Tim N. Palmer,et al. Ensemble forecasting , 2008, J. Comput. Phys..
[19] D. Boldo,et al. Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model , 2014 .
[20] A. Raftery,et al. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation , 2007 .
[21] J. Kleissl,et al. Reporting of irradiance modeling relative prediction errors , 2013 .
[22] Leonard A. Smith,et al. Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory , 2002 .
[23] Detlev Heinemann,et al. Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power , 2012 .
[24] S. Nahavandi,et al. Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Power Generation Forecasts , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.
[25] P. Pinson,et al. Generation and evaluation of space–time trajectories of photovoltaic power , 2016, 1603.06649.
[26] T. Soubdhan,et al. A benchmarking of machine learning techniques for solar radiation forecasting in an insular context , 2015 .
[27] T. Hamill. Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts , 2001 .
[28] A. Raftery,et al. Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness , 2007 .
[29] Anton H. Westveld,et al. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation , 2005 .
[30] Pierre Pinson,et al. Non‐parametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power: required properties and evaluation , 2007 .
[31] Zied Ben Bouallegue. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts , 2015 .
[32] Pierre Pinson,et al. Very Short-Term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation— With Application to Solar Energy , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
[33] J. Bröcker. Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score , 2012 .
[34] Jeffrey L. Anderson. A Method for Producing and Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts from Ensemble Model Integrations , 1996 .
[35] Philippe Lauret,et al. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models , 2016 .
[36] H. Madsen,et al. Reliability diagrams for non‐parametric density forecasts of continuous variables: Accounting for serial correlation , 2010 .
[37] Gordon Reikard. Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of time series forecasts , 2009 .
[38] Mario Paolone,et al. Irradiance prediction intervals for PV stochastic generation in microgrid applications , 2016 .
[39] L. D. Monache,et al. An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast , 2015 .
[40] Olivier Pannekoucke,et al. A benchmark of statistical regression methods for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic electricity production, part I: Deterministic forecast of hourly production , 2014 .
[41] Bodo Ahrens,et al. Generalization of the Ignorance Score: Continuous Ranked Version and Its Decomposition , 2012 .
[42] Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al. Assessment of machine learning techniques for deterministic and probabilistic intra-hour solar forecasts , 2018, Renewable Energy.
[43] L. D. Monache,et al. An application of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for short-term solar power forecasting , 2016 .
[44] Rob J Hyndman,et al. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond , 2016 .
[45] Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al. Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts , 2015 .
[46] H. Hersbach. Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems , 2000 .
[47] Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al. History and trends in solar irradiance and PV power forecasting: A preliminary assessment and review using text mining , 2018, Solar Energy.
[48] Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al. Nearest-neighbor methodology for prediction of intra-hour global horizontal and direct normal irradiances , 2015 .
[49] Richard Perez,et al. Modeling PV fleet output variability , 2012 .
[50] Leonard A. Smith,et al. Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams , 2007 .
[51] Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al. Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance , 2017 .
[52] Joakim Widén,et al. Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption , 2018 .
[53] Pierre Pinson,et al. Probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux , 2012, Applied Energy.
[54] Mathieu David,et al. Comparison of intraday probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance using only endogenous data , 2018, International Journal of Forecasting.
[55] A. H. Murphy,et al. What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting , 1993 .
[56] Daniel S. Wilks,et al. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction , 1995 .
[57] C. Coimbra,et al. Forecasting of global and direct solar irradiance using stochastic learning methods, ground experiments and the NWS database , 2011 .
[58] Pierre Pinson,et al. Discussion of “Prediction Intervals for Short-Term Wind Farm Generation Forecasts” and “Combined Nonparametric Prediction Intervals for Wind Power Generation” , 2014 .