Service life prediction of ceramic tiling systems in Brasília-Brazil using the factor method

Abstract Buildings and their systems naturally tend to deteriorate over time, losing some of their original properties. The buildings’ envelope is more susceptible to the degradation process, due to its higher exposure to adverse conditions, especially in relation to climatic environmental degradation agents. The characteristics of the buildings’ envelope systems must be maintained for a specified minimum period of time, in order to fulfil the users’ needs and expectations. This can be achieved by adopting adequate maintenance policies, which allow avoiding serious and dangerous degradation levels, also promoting a higher durability and service life for these elements. The adoption of rational and suitable maintenance strategies is only possible through the knowledge regarding the degradation process of these elements over time, estimating the instant after which it is necessary to intervene. Therefore, this study intends to develop a model, based on the factor method, to predict the service life of ceramic tiling systems in Brasilia-Brazil. The methodology considers the application of the factor method using a deterministic and a probabilistic approach. In the deterministic approach, the durability factors are quantified as absolute values, leading to an estimated service life also given by an absolute value. In the probabilistic approach, each durability factor and the estimated service life for each case study within the sample are given by a probability distribution function. The probabilistic approach encompasses the variability and probability associated with the presence of a given characteristic or durability factor; in this sense, this approach allows obtaining relevant information regarding the risk of failure of the element under analysis, which allow improving the effectiveness of the definition of maintenance strategies. The results obtained seem coherent, stressing the relevance of the quality of design, the characteristics of the material and the exposure to the environmental conditions, for the deterioration of ceramic tiling systems.