Statistical modelling of delays in a rail freight transportation network

This study analyzes the transportation network of a major rail freight operator in order to obtain a model of delay propagation of trains connecting intermodal terminals. Operational management of a rail freight operator needs to take into account deviations due to unexpected events such as unplanned maintenance, strikes, railroad works, traffic congestion. The dispatcher makes train assignment decisions based on a number of performance indicators and also on the expectancy that a given train, currently delayed, could recover or limit the amount of delay in the future. We have developed a Markov-chain based model in order to evaluate the evolution of train delays as a train visits successive terminals. Our model is based on the examination of a large set of historical data and we show how we can classify different terminals according to their ability either to absorb or to amplify delays.

[1]  Wayne K. Minger,et al.  Association of American railroad's network model , 1969 .

[2]  Arjang A. Assad,et al.  MODELS FOR RAIL TRANSPORTATION , 1980 .

[3]  Süleyman Özekici,et al.  On a Rail Transportation Model with Scheduled Services , 1994, Transp. Sci..

[4]  Erhan Kozan,et al.  Modeling Train Delays in Urban Networks , 1998, Transp. Sci..

[5]  Kerim Tumay,et al.  Network simulation of a major railroad , 1998, 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.98CH36274).

[6]  Robert H. Leilich.  Application of simulation models in capacity constrained rail corridors , 1998, 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. Proceedings (Cat. No.98CH36274).

[7]  Christos G. Cassandras,et al.  Introduction to Discrete Event Systems , 1999, The Kluwer International Series on Discrete Event Dynamic Systems.

[8]  Matteo Fischetti,et al.  Modeling and Solving the Train Timetabling Problem , 2002, Oper. Res..

[9]  Luca Maria Gambardella,et al.  A simulation tool for combined rail/road transport in intermodal terminals , 2002, Math. Comput. Simul..

[10]  Dario Pacciarelli,et al.  A branch and bound algorithm for scheduling trains in a railway network , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[11]  Manfred Gronalt,et al.  Generic simulation for rail-road container terminals , 2008, 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.

[12]  Marco Pranzo,et al.  An Advanced Real-Time Train Dispatching System for Minimizing the Propagation of Delays in a Dispatching Area Under Severe Disturbances , 2009 .

[13]  Clark Cheng,et al.  YardSim: A rail yard simulation framework and its implementation in a major railroad in the U.S. , 2009, Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

[14]  Alexander Verbraeck,et al.  LIBROS-II: Railway modeling with DEVS , 2010, Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference.

[15]  Dominique Feillet,et al.  SAPI: Statistical Analysis of Propagation of Incidents. A new approach for rescheduling trains after disruptions , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..