Resilience as an emergent property of human-infrastructure dynamics: A multi-agent simulation model for characterizing regime shifts and tipping point behaviors in infrastructure systems

The objective of this study is to establish a framework for analyzing infrastructure dynamics affecting the long-term steady state, and hence resilience in civil infrastructure systems. To this end, a multi-agent simulation model was created to capture important phenomena affecting the dynamics of coupled human-infrastructure systems and model the long-term performance regimes of infrastructure. The proposed framework captures the following three factors that shape the dynamics of coupled human-infrastructure systems: (i) engineered physical infrastructure; (ii) human actors; and (iii) chronic and acute stressors. A complex system approach was adopted to examine the long-term resilience of infrastructure based on the understanding of performance regimes, as well as tipping points at which shifts in the performance regime of infrastructure occur under the impact of external stressors and/or change in internal dynamics. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated in a case of urban water distribution infrastructure using the data from a numerical case study network. The developed multi-agent simulation model was then used in examining the system resilience over a 100-year horizon under stressors such as population change and funding constraints. The results identified the effects of internal dynamics and external stressors on the resilience landscape of infrastructure systems. Furthermore, the results also showed the capability of the framework in capturing and simulating the underlying mechanisms affecting human-infrastructure dynamics, as well as long-term regime shifts and tipping point behaviors. Therefore, the integrated framework proposed in this paper enables building complex system-based theories for a more advanced understanding of civil infrastructure resilience.

[1]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management , 2004 .

[2]  Steve Bankes,et al.  Validation of exploratory modeling , 1994 .

[3]  Min Ouyang,et al.  A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems , 2012 .

[4]  A-L Barabási,et al.  Separating internal and external dynamics of complex systems. , 2004, Physical review letters.

[5]  Rym Zalila-Wenkstern,et al.  DIVAs 4.0: A Multi-Agent Based Simulation Framework , 2013, 2013 IEEE/ACM 17th International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real Time Applications.

[6]  I. Linkov,et al.  Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[7]  Dragan Savic,et al.  Assessing pipe failure rate and mechanical reliability of water distribution networks using data-driven modeling , 2009 .

[8]  Ali Mostafavi,et al.  Emergence of Resilience from Infrastructure Dynamics: A Simulation Framework for Theory Building , 2017 .

[9]  C. Folke.  RESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES , 2006 .

[10]  Mark Knight,et al.  A probability model for investigating the trend of structural deterioration of wastewater pipelines , 2010 .

[11]  Heriberto Cabezas,et al.  Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information , 2008 .

[12]  Stephanie E. Chang,et al.  Fostering resilience to extreme events within infrastructure systems: Characterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation , 2008 .

[13]  François Bousquet,et al.  Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review , 2004 .

[14]  K. Emanuel,et al.  Evaluating Flood Resilience Strategies for Coastal Megacities , 2014, Science.

[15]  Ali Mostafavi,et al.  A hybrid simulation framework for integrated management of infrastructure networks , 2014, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 2014.

[16]  Balvant Rajani,et al.  Considering Time-dependent Factors in the Statistical Prediction of Water Main Breaks , 2000 .

[17]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems , 2001, Nature.

[18]  Guangtao Fu,et al.  Global resilience analysis of water distribution systems. , 2016, Water research.

[19]  Elizabeth A. Mack,et al.  A Burgeoning Crisis? A Nationwide Assessment of the Geography of Water Affordability in the United States , 2017, PloS one.

[20]  Carl Folke,et al.  The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses , 2006 .

[21]  Benoit Gaudou,et al.  GAMA 1.6: Advancing the Art of Complex Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation , 2013, PRIMA.

[22]  P. Rietveld,et al.  The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings , 2009 .

[23]  Daniel DeLaurentis,et al.  Agent-Based Simulation Model for Assessment of Financing Scenarios in Highway Transportation Infrastructure Systems , 2016, J. Comput. Civ. Eng..

[24]  Maria E. Presa Reyes,et al.  Agent-based modeling framework for simulation of complex adaptive mechanisms underlying household water conservation technology adoption , 2017, 2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

[25]  Carl T. Haas,et al.  Strategic Water Utility Management and Financial Planning Using a New System Dynamics Tool , 2015 .

[26]  J. Bergh,et al.  Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks , 2010 .

[27]  R. Murray,et al.  Systems Measures of Water Distribution System Resilience , 2015 .

[28]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  Modeling Infrastructure Performance and User Costs , 1995 .

[29]  Robert G. Sargent,et al.  Verification and validation of simulation models , 2013, Proceedings of Winter Simulation Conference.

[30]  Igor Linkov,et al.  Resilience and efficiency in transportation networks , 2017, Science Advances.

[31]  R. Shaw.  Incorporating resilience of rural communities for proactive risk reduction in Shikoku, Japan , 2013 .

[32]  Igor Linkov,et al.  Operational resilience: concepts, design and analysis , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[33]  Aybike Ulusan,et al.  Restoration of services in disrupted infrastructure systems: A network science approach , 2018, PloS one.

[34]  S. Bhamidipati.  Simulation Framework for Asset Management in Climate-change Adaptation of Transportation Infrastructure , 2014 .

[35]  Kathleen M. Eisenhardt,et al.  Developing Theory Through Simulation Methods , 2006 .

[36]  Charles M. Macal,et al.  To agent-based simulation from System Dynamics , 2010, Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference.

[37]  J M W Brownjohn,et al.  Structural health monitoring of civil infrastructure , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[38]  Uri Shamir,et al.  An Analytic Approach to Scheduling Pipe Replacement , 1979 .

[39]  Ali Mostafavi,et al.  Multiagent Simulation for Complex Adaptive Modeling of Road Infrastructure Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise , 2018, Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastructure Eng..

[40]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[41]  Thomas Brenner,et al.  Empirical Calibration of Simulation Models , 2004 .

[42]  Emile J.L. Chappin,et al.  Adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change: A socio-technical systems perspective , 2014 .

[43]  A. Barabasi,et al.  Universal resilience patterns in complex networks , 2016, Nature.

[44]  C T Haas,et al.  Application of system dynamics for developing financially self-sustaining management policies for water and wastewater systems. , 2011, Water research.

[45]  Ali Mostafavi,et al.  Understanding Fundamental Phenomena Affecting the Water Conservation Technology Adoption of Residential Consumers Using Agent-Based Modeling , 2018, Water.

[46]  Ali Mostafavi,et al.  A system-of-systems framework for exploratory analysis of climate change impacts on civil infrastructure resilience , 2018 .

[47]  Royce A. Francis,et al.  A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[48]  S. Levin,et al.  Regime shifts in a social-ecological system , 2013, Theoretical Ecology.

[49]  Gregory R. Madey,et al.  Verification and Validation of Agent-based Scientific Simulation Models , 2005 .