Insights from Hazus loss estimations in Israel for Dead Sea Transform earthquakes

History shows that countries along the Dead Sea Transform, including Israel, have suffered considerable destruction from strong earthquakes, and thus, a modern approach for damage and loss estimations is essential in mitigating damage from future earthquakes. Yet to date, only preliminary damage scenarios have been developed. The present study uses the Hazus MH 2.1 (2012) software to simulate damage and loss estimation for seven earthquakes that may affect Israel. For the first time, over 2,200 different building construction schemes, including a comprehensive nationwide building inventory of over 900K buildings, were simulated in order to identify the high-risk areas and suggest potential mitigation strategies as well as a financial budget plan that would ultimately alleviate the anticipated catastrophe in Israel. The results show excellent ability of Hazus to resolve the expected levels of damage, including damages for various types of buildings, debris and economic losses. Furthermore, it shows that the most intensive damage is expected to concentrate in northern Israel, mainly in the Haifa and Bet Sheàn regions, as well as in areas of older building stock and adjacent to the major fault lines. Comparison between the budget required for strengthening structures and the economic loss expected after a strong earthquake shows that strengthening structures will undoubtedly reduce the disaster magnitude dramatically. The loss estimations can provide decision makers a tool for planning post-earthquake emergency actions including rescue, debris clearance, building inspection, sheltering requirements and directing the civil protection authorities in a focused and proper response during an earthquake event. Although local fragility curves have not yet been developed in Israel, the new scenarios presented here demonstrate that the benefits of realizing already now the rough scope of earthquake damage greatly outdo future gains from as yet unavailable exact assessments.

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