DEFINING AND ANALYZING PRECURSORS. IN: ACCIDENT PRECURSOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT: REDUCING TECHNOLOGICAL RISK THROUGH DILIGENCE

After any technological disaster, there are questions and considerations about the precursors of the accident and whether or not the accident could have been prevented. This chapter, from a section on risk assessment, is from the proceedings of a workshop (Washington, DC, July 2003) sponsored by the National Academy of Engineering's (NAE) Accident Precursors Project. The author first provides and compares various definitions of precursors, then explores strategies to identify true from false precursors. Additional topics include near misses, how to unveil precursors, root-cause analysis of precursors, and tools to assist in analyzing precursors. The author concludes that detailed investigations of most adverse events reveal precursors; accidents have been preceded by events, behaviors, and conditions that were ingredients of the adverse consequences. The author stresses the importance of organizational prioritization of precursors. The ability to recognize precursors and respond appropriately is a very valuable organizational skill, especially the ability to identify or unveil precursors.