The Research of Forecasting Model of Cargo Based on Two Different Methods

Rail transport can be recognized as the main artery of the national economy. Therefore it is very useful and important to forecast the rail cargo more accurately. This paper reviews the development of cargo forecasting methods, which have been studied for about 50 years. The character of each model will be analyzed and summarized. Then, on the basis of existing models of study, the authors adopt an improved stepwise regression model and Grey Model to forecast the rail cargo in Beijing. According to the analysis of related factors, the authors improve the stepwise regression model by adding average transport distance into the parameters. At last, the authors compare the two models, of which the basic ideas are completely different, and finally give their scopes of application. The authors hope it is a meaningful pursuit in the area of rail cargo estimation.