Climate change and waterborne disease risk in the Great Lakes region of the U.S.

Extremes of the hydrologic cycle will accompany global warming, causing precipitation intensity to increase, particularly in middle and high latitudes. During the twentieth century, the frequency of major storms has already increased, and the total precipitation increase over this time period has primarily come from the greater number of heavy events. The Great Lakes region is projected to experience a rise these extreme precipitation events. For southern Wisconsin, the precipitation rate of the 10 wettest days was simulated using a suite of seven global climate models from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. For each ranking, the precipitation rate of these very heavy events increases in the future. Overall, the models project that extreme precipitation events will become 10% to 40% stronger in southern Wisconsin, resulting in greater potential for flooding, and for the waterborne diseases that often accompany high discharge into Lake Michigan. Using 6.4 cm (2.5 in) of daily precipitation as the threshold for initiating combined sewer overflow into Lake Michigan, the frequency of these events is expected to rise by 50% to 120% by the end of this century. The combination of future thermal and hydrologic changes may affect the usability of recreational beaches. Chicago beach closures are dependent on the magnitude of recent precipitation (within the past 24 hours), lake temperature, and lake stage. Projected increases in heavy rainfall, warmer lake waters, and lowered lake levels would all be expected to contribute to beach contamination in the future. The Great Lakes serve as a drinking water source for more than 40 million people. Ongoing studies and past events illustrate a strong connection between rain events and the amount of pollutants entering the Great Lakes. Extreme precipitation under global warming projections may overwhelm the combined sewer systems and lead to overflow events that can threaten both human health and recreation in the region.

[1]  Katharine G. Field,et al.  Identification of Nonpoint Sources of Fecal Pollution in Coastal Waters by Using Host-Specific 16S Ribosomal DNA Genetic Markers from Fecal Anaerobes , 2000, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[2]  John F. Griffith,et al.  Water Quality Indicators and the Risk of Illness at Beaches With Nonpoint Sources of Fecal Contamination , 2007, Epidemiology.

[3]  P. Yu,et al.  Surveillance for waterborne disease and outbreaks associated with recreational water--United States, 2003-2004. , 2006, Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Surveillance summaries.

[4]  D. W. Owens,et al.  Sources of Pollutants in Wisconsin Stormwater , 1993 .

[5]  S. Grant,et al.  Locating sources of surf zone pollution: a mass budget analysis of fecal indicator bacteria at Huntington Beach, California. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[6]  David R. Easterling,et al.  Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations , 2004 .

[7]  S. McLellan,et al.  Evidence for localized bacterial loading as the cause of chronic beach closings in a freshwater marina. , 2003, Water research.

[8]  G. Meehl,et al.  Going to the Extremes , 2006 .

[9]  Claudia Tebaldi,et al.  Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations , 2005 .

[10]  J. Rose,et al.  Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on water- and foodborne diseases caused by microbiologic agents. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[11]  G. Characklis,et al.  Intra-storm variability in microbial partitioning and microbial loading rates. , 2007, Water research.

[12]  Claudia Tebaldi,et al.  Going to the extremes , 2007 .

[13]  R. Whitman,et al.  Interaction and influence of two creeks on Escherichia coli concentrations of nearby beaches: exploration of predictability and mechanisms. , 2007, Journal of environmental quality.

[14]  J. Semenza,et al.  Association of Urban Runoff with Coastal Water Quality in Orange County, California , 2002, Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation.

[15]  S. Okabe,et al.  Alternative indicators of fecal pollution: relations with pathogens and conventional indicators, current methodologies for direct pathogen monitoring and future application perspectives. , 2006, Water research.

[16]  Joan B. Rose,et al.  Microbial Source Tracking: Current Methodology and Future Directions , 2002, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[17]  Richard J Gelting,et al.  Surveillance for waterborne disease and outbreaks associated with drinking water and water not intended for drinking--United States, 2003-2004. , 2006, Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Surveillance summaries.

[18]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century , 1995, Nature.

[19]  A. Boehm,et al.  Beach sands along the California coast are diffuse sources of fecal bacteria to coastal waters. , 2007, Environmental science & technology.

[20]  R. D. Morris,et al.  Temporal variation in drinking water turbidity and diagnosed gastroenteritis in Milwaukee. , 1996, American journal of public health.

[21]  A. Mackay Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2008 .

[22]  S. McLellan,et al.  Influence of Nearshore Water Dynamics and Pollution Sources on Beach Monitoring Outcomes at Two Adjacent Lake Michigan Beaches , 2006 .

[23]  Stanley A. Changnon,et al.  Climate-Related Fluctuations in Midwestern Floods during 1921–1985 , 1995 .

[24]  Richard J Jackson,et al.  Public health effects of inadequately managed stormwater runoff. , 2003, American journal of public health.

[25]  S. Hassler Going to Extremes , 1995, Bio/Technology.

[26]  Meredith B. Nevers,et al.  Solar and Temporal Effects on Escherichia coli Concentration at a Lake Michigan Swimming Beach , 2004, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[27]  J. Rose,et al.  Potential use of a host associated molecular marker in Enterococcus faecium as an index of human fecal pollution. , 2005, Environmental science & technology.

[28]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Estimating Extremes in Transient Climate Change Simulations , 2005 .

[29]  J. Schwartz,et al.  Drinking Water Turbidity and Pediatric Hospital Use for Gastrointestinal Illness in Philadelphia , 1997, Epidemiology.

[30]  D Kay,et al.  Relationships between microbial water quality and environmental conditions in coastal recreational waters: the Fylde coast, UK. , 2001, Water research.

[31]  T. Wilbanks,et al.  Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[32]  J S Witte,et al.  The health effects of swimming in ocean water contaminated by storm drain runoff. , 1999, Epidemiology.

[33]  G. Olyphant,et al.  Elements of a Predictive Model for Determining Beach Closures on a Real Time Basis: The Case of 63rd Street Beach Chicago , 2004, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[34]  C. Carson,et al.  Detection of the nifH gene of Methanobrevibacter smithii: a potential tool to identify sewage pollution in recreational waters , 2006, Journal of applied microbiology.

[35]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[36]  S. Weisberg,et al.  Tidal forcing of enterococci at marine recreational beaches at fortnightly and semidiurnal frequencies. , 2005, Environmental science & technology.

[37]  S. Lele,et al.  The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994. , 2001, American journal of public health.

[38]  J. Colford,et al.  Do U.S. Environmental Protection Agency water quality guidelines for recreational waters prevent gastrointestinal illness? A systematic review and meta-analysis. , 2003, Environmental health perspectives.

[39]  Stephen B Weisberg,et al.  Relationship between rainfall and beach bacterial concentrations on Santa Monica bay beaches. , 2003, Journal of water and health.

[40]  Sherline H Lee,et al.  Surveillance for waterborne-disease outbreaks associated with recreational water--United States, 2001-2002. , 2004, Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Surveillance summaries.

[41]  A. Boehm,et al.  Frequent occurrence of the human-specific Bacteroides fecal marker at an open coast marine beach: relationship to waves, tides and traditional indicators. , 2007, Environmental microbiology.

[42]  M. Webb,et al.  Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations , 2006 .

[43]  B. Stone,et al.  Urban Form and Watershed Management: How Zoning Influences Residential Stormwater Volumes , 2006 .

[44]  T. Wigley,et al.  Future changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals across North America , 2002 .

[45]  Meredith B. Nevers,et al.  Foreshore Sand as a Source of Escherichia coli in Nearshore Water of a Lake Michigan Beach , 2003, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[46]  Stefan Wuertz,et al.  Quo vadis source tracking? Towards a strategic framework for environmental monitoring of fecal pollution. , 2007, Water research.

[47]  M. Mallin,et al.  EFFECT OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ON BACTERIOLOGICAL WATER QUALITY IN COASTAL WATERSHEDS , 2000 .

[48]  E. J. Hollis,et al.  Distribution and Fate of Escherichia coli in Lake Michigan Following Contamination with Urban Stormwater and Combined Sewer Overflows , 2007 .

[49]  D. Easterling,et al.  Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895–2000 , 2003 .

[50]  R. Whitman,et al.  Nowcast modeling of Escherichia coli concentrations at multiple urban beaches of southern Lake Michigan. , 2005, Water research.

[51]  R. Lockey,et al.  Effects of toxin of red tide, Ptychodiscus brevis, on canine tracheal smooth muscle: a possible new asthma-triggering mechanism. , 1982, The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology.

[52]  C. Braden,et al.  Surveillance for foodborne-disease outbreaks--United States, 1998-2002. , 2006, Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Surveillance summaries.

[53]  David Kay,et al.  Faecal-indicator concentrations in waters draining lowland pastoral catchments in the UK: relationships with land use and farming practices. , 2002, Water research.

[54]  Gary T. Fisher,et al.  Urban stormwater runoff; selected background information and techniques for problem assessment, with a Baltimore, Maryland case study , 1988 .

[55]  Henry Samueli,et al.  Decadal and Shorter Period Variability of Surf Zone Water Quality at Huntington Beach, California , 2002 .

[56]  V. Harwood,et al.  Confirmation of putative stormwater impact on water quality at a Florida beach by microbial source tracking methods and structure of indicator organism populations. , 2007, Water research.

[57]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change , 1999 .

[58]  F. Emiliani Effects of hydroclimatic anomalies on bacteriological quality of the Middle Paraná River (Santa Fe, Argentina). , 2004, Revista Argentina de microbiologia.

[59]  G. Olyphant,et al.  Characterization and Statistical Modeling of Bacterial ( Escherichia Coli) Outflows from Watersheds that Discharge into Southern Lake Michigan , 2003, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[60]  J. Rose,et al.  The effects of seasonal variability and weather on microbial fecal pollution and enteric pathogens in a subtropical estuary , 2001 .

[61]  G. Chebbo,et al.  Distribution of pollutant mass vs volume in stormwater discharges and the first flush phenomenon , 1998 .

[62]  S. McLellan,et al.  Detection of Genetic Markers of Fecal Indicator Bacteria in Lake Michigan and Determination of Their Relationship to Escherichia coli Densities Using Standard Microbiological Methods , 2005, Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

[63]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[64]  C. Arnold,et al.  IMPERVIOUS SURFACE COVERAGE: THE EMERGENCE OF A KEY ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATOR , 1996 .

[65]  S. Hrudey,et al.  A fatal waterborne disease epidemic in Walkerton, Ontario: comparison with other waterborne outbreaks in the developed world. , 2003, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[66]  M. Miller Agency , 2010 .

[67]  J. Aramini,et al.  Infectious disease outbreaks related to drinking water in Canada, 1974-2001. , 2005, Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique.

[68]  Charles P. Gerba,et al.  Waterborne rotavirus: A risk assessment , 1996 .

[69]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States , 1998 .

[70]  P. Chigbu,et al.  Influence of inter-annual variations in climatic factors on fecal coliform levels in Mississippi Sound. , 2004, Water research.

[71]  Chantal Brisson,et al.  Job strain and pregnancy-induced hypertension. , 1999 .