Uncontrolled and Unfocused Growth The US Supersonic Transport, SST, and the Attempt to Synthesize Fuels from Coal

AbstractThis review examines the unsuccessful life cycles of two large-scale, public/private, tecbnological enterprises: the United States Supersonic Transport (SST) program and the United States effort to develop synthetic fuels from coal. More specifically, the SST program exbibits uncontrolled growth and the following evolutionary pattern: containment, fragmentation and explosion. Synthetic fuels development exbibits another pattern, that of unfocused growth: limited activity, premature expansion and uncertain takeoff. Four determinants of the life cycles of such enterprises are identified: the state of tbe technology, the rate and nature of growth, the character of the external environment, and managerial ability. Successful enterprises, such as the Apollo program, exhibit another life cycle: controlled growth.