New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways

Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the over-exploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further.

[1]  Gitanjali S. Bodner,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Exploring Opportunities for Advancing Collaborative Adaptive Management (CAM): Integrating Experience and Practice Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario- Planning: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area , 2013 .

[2]  B. Martín‐López,et al.  Participatory Scenario Planning for Protected Areas Management under the Ecosystem Services Framework: the Doñana Social-Ecological System in Southwestern Spain , 2011 .

[3]  Garry D. Peterson,et al.  Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies , 2015 .

[4]  Kasper Kok,et al.  Scale and Governance: Conceptual Considerations and Practical Implications , 2011 .

[5]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways , 2013, Climatic Change.

[6]  Muhammad Amer,et al.  A review of scenario planning , 2013 .

[7]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2000 .

[8]  Henrik Carlsen,et al.  Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways: A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region , 2017 .

[9]  K. Riahi,et al.  The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century , 2017 .

[10]  Dale S. Rothman,et al.  Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean , 2007 .

[11]  P. Harrison,et al.  Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe , 2013, Regional Environmental Change.

[12]  Benjamin L. Preston,et al.  Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies , 2015 .

[13]  N. Frantzeskaki,et al.  Understanding high-end climate change: from impacts to co-creating integrated and transformative solutions , 2019, Regional Environmental Change.

[14]  A. Thomson,et al.  The representative concentration pathways: an overview , 2011 .

[15]  J. Jäger,et al.  The CLIMSAVE Project Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe , 2013 .

[16]  B. Eickhout,et al.  A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use , 2008 .

[17]  Louis Lebel,et al.  Guest Editorial, part of a Special Feature on Scale and Cross-scale Dynamics Scale and Cross-Scale Dynamics: Governance and Information in a Multilevel World , 2006 .

[18]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment , 2010, Nature.

[19]  R. Scholes,et al.  Multi-scale and cross-scale assessments of social-ecological systems and their ecosystem services , 2013 .

[20]  Thomas Henrichs,et al.  Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments , 2007 .

[21]  Roland W. Scholz,et al.  Constructing consistent multiscale scenarios by transdisciplinary processes : the case of mountain regions facing global change , 2013 .

[22]  Ian P. Holman,et al.  Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios , 2019, Regional Environmental Change.

[23]  Kasper Kok,et al.  Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe , 2007 .

[24]  T. Carter,et al.  Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland , 2005 .

[25]  Hugo Valin,et al.  Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context , 2017, Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions.

[26]  Jennifer Hauck,et al.  Integrative Scenario Development , 2014 .

[27]  Timothy F. Smith,et al.  Toward a new conceptualization of household adaptive capacity to climate change: applying a risk governance lens , 2014 .

[28]  Mark Rounsevell,et al.  Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment , 2010 .

[29]  Jude Herijadi Kurniawan,et al.  Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors , 2016, Environ. Model. Softw..

[30]  Erin Bohensky,et al.  Young Scholars Dialogue, part of a Special Feature on Scenarios of global ecosystem services Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios , 2007 .

[31]  Detlef P. van Vuuren,et al.  Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use , 2012 .

[32]  J. Eom,et al.  The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview , 2017 .

[33]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[34]  Kasper Kok,et al.  Stakeholder integrated research (STIR): a new approach tested in climate change adaptation research , 2015, Climatic Change.

[35]  Anne Tolvanen,et al.  Local People, Nature Conservation, and Tourism in Northeastern Finland , 2008 .

[36]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios , 2016, Sustainability Science.