Long-term penetration and traffic forecasts for the Western European fixed broadband market

The objective with the paper is to describe, analyze and forecast the future fixed broadband penetration and traffic growth in NGN and NGA networks in Western Europe - one of the most advanced telecommunications areas in the world. Analyses show that the broadband penetrations are very well fitted by Logistic models. Here, extended Logistic four parameter models are used to develop broadband penetration forecasts 2011 - 2015. Separate forecasts are developed for DSL, HFC(Hybrid Fiber Coax), FTTx and FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) The traffic forecasts are developed per user in the busy hour. Hence, it is possible to assess the future fixed broadband busy hour traffic in NGA networks and also the accumulated busy hour traffic in NGN networks taking into account the fixed broadband penetration forecasts.