Air Force Enlisted Personnel Retention-Accession Model.

Abstract : This report presents the methods of analysis and results of an effort designed to develop a methodology for explaining Air Force accessions and retentions. The analysis was conducted in three stages. First, the life-cycle model of the enlistment decision originally developed in a previous contract was extended and clarified. Second, a new data set was developed. These data are described extensively and plotted to reveal its relation to significant institutional changes that occurred over the 1957 to 1978 period. The data were then used to estimate accession supply equations for each sex, race, and AFQT category. Third, two new theoretical developments are presented. The first of these develops a model of the enlisted force by skill group. The second utilizes the theory of economic dynamics to simulate the adjustments of the enlisted force to changes in pertinent variables. (Author)