Mode shift impacts of optimal time-dependent congestion pricing in large networks: A simulation-based case study in the greater toronto area

Abstract This paper presents a case study on commuter’s departure time, route and mode choice responses to optimized tolling in the Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The study integrates a toll optimization component into an integrated framework of econometric departure time choice, dynamic traffic assignment model, and random utility maximization (RUM) based mode choice model. An iterative optimization algorithm is used to generate optimal tolling structure which explicitly considers heterogeneous user preferences through econometric departure time choice modelling component. The mode choice component is exogenously retrofitted in an integrated econometric departure time choice modelling component and dynamic operational traffic assignment model to capture individual mode choice behaviour in response to variable congestion pricing. The integrated model results show that individuals are more likely to switch driving routes and departure times than commuting modes when making tradeoffs between schedule delay cost, travel time cost, and toll cost. It is found that the optimal toll scenario improves the network-wide travel time. The modelling framework presented in this study can test a wide range of policy scenarios including the time-variable tolling of congested highways, and high occupancy toll lanes. While the integrated framework presented here is tested at a large scale on the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), we believe the approach can be applied to large-scale networks globally where the objective is seeking the best network-wide spatial and temporal traffic distribution.