Scenario predication for medium-long term scale of coal mine methane drainage in China

Based on the scenario analysis,the middle-long term scale of the coal mine methane(CMM) drainage in China was discussed.It was suggested that the scenario keys constricting the CMM-draining scale of China include the raw coal production,the drainage rate and the drainage amount per ton of coal.Raising the drainage rate greatly is the only way to increase the CMM-draining scale but need a support from the drainage process and technology innovation.Based on the CMM-draining status quo of China,referring to the predication on the medium-long term of the coal production and consumption in China and the drainage rate of major U S coal mines,the average nationwide CMM-draining rate is set into five scenarios such as 30%,40%,50%,60% and 70%,and national raw coal production into three scenarios including the low,medium and high scales.The medium-long term trends for fifteen joint scenarios of the national CMM-draining scales were simulated,the possibility of all scenarios were discussed,and the most likely scenarios,i.e.,16.2 billion cubic meters in 2015,22.3 billion cubic meters in 2020,24.4 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 19.8 billion cubic meters in 2030,were suggested.Among them,the drainage scale will be significantly rising before 2025,and then may tend to decline,with a "ceiling" of about 24.5 billion cubic meters.