Unravelling and forecasting algal population dynamics in two lakes different in morphometry and eutrophication by neural and evolutionary computation

Abstract Precious ecological information extracted from limnological long-term time series advances the theory on functioning and evolution of freshwater ecosystems. This paper presents results of applications of artificial neural networks (ANN) and evolutionary algorithms (EA) for ordination, clustering, forecasting and rule discovery of complex limnological time-series data of two distinctively different lakes. Ten years of data of the shallow and hypertrophic Lake Kasumigaura (Japan) are utilized in comparison with 13 years of data of the deep and mesotrophic Lake Soyang (Korea). Results demonstrate the potential that: (1) recurrent supervised ANN and EA facilitate 1-week-ahead forecasting of outbreaks of harmful algae or water quality changes, (2) EA discover explanatory rule sets for timing and abundance of harmful outbreaks algal populations, and (3) non-supervised ANN provide clusters to unravel ecological relationships regarding seasons, water quality ranges and long-term environmental changes.

[1]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Unravelling and predicting ecosystem behaviours of Lake Soyang (South Korea) in response to seasonality and management by means of artificial neural networks , 2006 .

[2]  O. Varis,et al.  Multivariate analysis of lake phytoplankton and environmental factors , 1989 .

[3]  R. D. Gulati,et al.  Multivariate analysis of the plankton communities in the Loosdrecht lakes: relationship with the chemical and physical environment , 1992, Hydrobiologia.

[4]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Predicting eutrophication effects in the Burrinjuck Reservoir (Australia) by means of the deterministic model SALMO and the recurrent neural network model ANNA , 2001 .

[5]  Nitin Muttil,et al.  Genetic programming for analysis and real-time prediction of coastal algal blooms , 2005 .

[6]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Complex Interactions in Lake Communities , 2011, Springer New York.

[7]  Colin S. Reynolds,et al.  The ecology of freshwater phytoplankton , 1984 .

[8]  J. Shapiro,et al.  Blue‐green Dominance in Lakes: The Role and Management Significance of pH and CO2 , 1984 .

[9]  Teuvo Kohonen,et al.  In: Self-organising Maps , 1995 .

[10]  Takayuki Hanazato,et al.  Evaluation of Microcystis as food for zooplankton in a eutrophic lake , 2004, Hydrobiologia.

[11]  Una-May O'Reilly,et al.  Genetic Programming II: Automatic Discovery of Reusable Programs. , 1994, Artificial Life.

[12]  D. Schindler,et al.  CARBON, NITROGEN, AND PHOSPHORUS AND THE EUTROPHICATION OF FRESHWATER LAKES 1 , 1971 .

[14]  Juha Vesanto,et al.  SOM-based data visualization methods , 1999, Intell. Data Anal..

[15]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm for Rule Set Discovery in Time-Series Data to Forecast and Explain Algal Population Dynamics in Two Lakes Different in Morphometry and Eutrophication , 2006 .

[16]  Pineda,et al.  Generalization of back-propagation to recurrent neural networks. , 1987, Physical review letters.

[17]  Bomchul Kim,et al.  Effects of the summer monsoon on the distribution and loading of organic carbon in a deep reservoir, Lake Soyang, Korea , 2000 .

[18]  Dorothea Heiss-Czedik,et al.  An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms. , 1997, Artificial Life.

[19]  Teuvo Kohonen,et al.  Self-Organization and Associative Memory , 1988 .

[20]  O. Varis.  A canonical approach to diagnostic and predictive modelling of phytoplankton communities , 1991, Archiv für Hydrobiologie.

[21]  Bomchul Kim,et al.  The change in N/P ratio with eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Soyang, Korea , 1997 .

[22]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Simulation of aquatic food web and species interactions by adaptive agents embodied with evolutionary computation: a conceptual framework , 2003 .

[23]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Prediction and Elucidation of Population Dynamics of the Blue-green Algae Microcystis aeruginosa and the Diatom Stephanodiscus hantzschii in the Nakdong River-Reservoir System (South Korea) by a Recurrent Artificial Neural Network , 2006 .

[24]  John H. Holland,et al.  Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Applications to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence , 1992 .

[25]  John H. Holland,et al.  Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Applications to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence , 1992 .

[26]  Thomas Bäck,et al.  Evolutionary computation: comments on the history and current state , 1997, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[27]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic Algorithms in Search Optimization and Machine Learning , 1988 .

[28]  N. Takamura,et al.  Phytoplankton species shift accompanied by transition from nitrogen dependence to phosphorus dependence of primary production in Lake Kasumigaura, Japan , 1992 .

[29]  F. Mackereth,et al.  Phosphorus utilization by Asterionella formosa Hass , 1953 .

[30]  Young-Seuk Park,et al.  Patternizing communities by using an artificial neural network , 1996 .

[31]  Takayuki Hanazato,et al.  Interrelations between Microcystis and Cladocera in the highly Eutrophic Lake Kasumigaura, Japan , 1991 .

[32]  Peter Nordin,et al.  Genetic programming - An Introduction: On the Automatic Evolution of Computer Programs and Its Applications , 1998 .

[33]  G. E. Fogg,et al.  Is the Heterocyst the Site of Nitrogen Fixation in Blue-green Algae? , 1968, Nature.

[34]  John R. Koza,et al.  Genetic programming - on the programming of computers by means of natural selection , 1993, Complex adaptive systems.

[35]  J. Shapiro,et al.  Current beliefs regarding dominance by blue-greens: The case for the importance of CO2 and pH , 1990 .

[36]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Ecological Informatics: Scope, Techniques and Applications , 2006 .

[37]  J. Talling,et al.  The depletion of carbon dioxide from lake water by phytoplankton , 1976 .

[38]  Peter A. Whigham,et al.  Comparative application of artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms for multivariate time-series modelling of algal blooms in freshwater lakes , 2002 .