Integrated Assessment of Large-Scale Biofuel Production

This paper proposes a different framework for discussing the possibility of replacing a significant fraction of fossil energy consumption of modern economies with biofuels. The proposed analysis is not based on the two classic feasibility checks—land availability and output/input energy ratio—debated in the majority of the literature in this field. Rather, the focus is on the desirability of an energy sector powered by biomass energy. Discussing of desirability requires introducing a multicriteria approach, that in turn requires a definition of a set of criteria of performance for such an energy sector. The concepts of societal metabolism and ecosystem metabolism are introduced to define five criteria of performance for an energy sector powered by alternative sources. This paper does not tell the society whether or not biofuels should be used to replace fossil energy. Rather, it proposes a method of characterization of pros and cons for the option biofuel which can be used to make more informed choices. An analysis of three systems of production—corn-ethanol, sunflower-biodiesel, and SRWC-methanol—is provided to indicate the existence of systemic characteristics associated with an energy sector powered by biofuels. These characteristics are likely to persist even when different technical coefficients will be achieved. The conclusion is that, at the moment, it is not possible to replace the actual performance of an energy sector based on fossil energy with an energy sector running on biofuel. Biomass energy can and will have to play an important role in the sustainability of humankind, but this will require a better understanding of (i) the role that an energy sector plays within a given structure of societal metabolism; and (ii) the impact generated on ecosystem metabolism by societal metabolism, plus a lot of wisdom.

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