DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SPATIAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

The space-time path of the Manitoba grain handling system is explored in order to identify behavioral characteristics of a multi-locational economic activity undergoing spatial consolidation. Descriptive hypotheses regarding spatial trends as well as temporal trends are formulated and then tested. The Manitoba data set used in this testing consists of 388 locations and 32 time periods. Findings include: (a) closures occur in a quasi-concentric fashion; (b) a strong propensity exists for grain delivery points to remain active, or to remain inactive; and (c) significant spacetime covariation is latent in the data. Little is known about the general nature of the dynamics of multi-locational systems, especially during the declining stage of their life cycles. An understanding of such systems increasingly is important to the functioning of economic agents. In the public sector of the economy, for instance, many urban areas are faced with the problem of optimally rationalizing school systems. The solution to this problem ultimately involves closures, since the basic reason for this rationalization is declining student enrollments. Meanwhile, in the private sector of the economy gasoline service stations, for example, are closing due to declining margins of profit, declining demand attributable to better fuel economy, and a shift in consumer tastes. The primary purpose of this paper is to explore space-time paths of multi-locational economic activities in order to identify behavioral characteristics of spatial economic systems that are affiliated with the rationalization stage of the life cycle. Two general hypoth